Reasons for Surge Analysis: News + Technical Resonance
Sudden Policy Benefits (News Aspect)
Trump's Tariff Bomb: Last night Trump announced "Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on exports to the US", triggering global supply chain risk aversion. Vietnam is an active country for cryptocurrency trading (especially ETH), and capital is quickly flowing into decentralized assets like ETH to avoid tariff costs.
Market Logic: Tariffs → Increased costs for Vietnamese companies → Capital seeks anti-inflation assets → ETH becomes a short-term safe haven.
Key Technical Breakthrough Level (Technical Aspect)
Fibonacci support in effect: ETH previously received strong support at the 61.8% retracement level (2523 USDC), and after breaking through the 2562 resistance with volume, bullish sentiment exploded.
Main force order signal: Dense buy orders appear in the 2550~2561 range (委比-0.25% indicates weak selling pressure), clear signs of main force accumulation.
Will it drop back to 2450? Key points to watch
2550 has become the new support line
Currently, ETH stands firmly at 2550 (78.6% Fibonacci level), and trading volume is concentrated around 2560~2565, making the short-term probability of breaking 2520 strong support very low.
If it pulls back, 2520~2540 is the ideal entry point for bulls (50% distribution + main force cost zone).
Pullback Conditions:
News Reversal: If the US clarifies that "tariffs do not involve cryptocurrencies", or if Vietnam compromises on policies, ETH may pull back to 2480~2500.
Technical Break: If the daily line loses 2520 with volume, it may test 2450 (0% Fibonacci level), but current market sentiment does not support this scenario.
Can it reach 2800? Three major engines have been started!
Policy dividends continue
Trump's tariff comments may continue to ferment, and the expectation of capital flight from Vietnam is favorable for ETH demand.
Potential Catalyst: If US non-farm payroll data on July 5 is weak, expectations for Fed rate cuts will rise → crypto assets will surge.
Technical aspect opens up upward space
Weekly Level: ETH breaks the downtrend line (connecting April highs), aiming directly at 2800 (previous high accumulation zone).
Volume Cooperation: If daily trading volume maintains above 3.2 billion USD, breaking through 2650 will accelerate the upward trend.
On-chain signals bolster
Whale Movements: In the past 24 hours, over 100,000 ETH were transferred to exchanges, suspected institutional accumulation (not selling pressure).
Derivatives Market: ETH perpetual contract funding rate turns positive, long leverage is healthy.
Iron Eagle Strategy: Go with the trend, keep an eye on two positions
Aggressive: Gradually build long positions in the 2550~2580 range, stop loss at 2520, target 2650→2800.
Conservatives: Chase after breaking 2650 (confirming the upward trend), add positions if it re-tests but does not break 2600.
Explosive Quotes:
"The tariff war ignites the crypto safe-haven trend, ETH has become the new port for capital! Holding steady at 2550 is the starting point of a bull market!"
#大而美法案
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$ETH