Last night and this morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound, with Ethereum (ETH) price breaking through the $2600 mark, increasing over 8% in 24 hours, setting a recent high. This wave of aggressive momentum coincided with the U.S. passing the 'Beautiful Bill', adjustments in tariff policies towards Vietnam, and a collective surge in U.S. stocks. The three positive pieces of news resonated, directly igniting euphoric sentiment in the crypto market.
The Beautiful Bill: A Capital Feast Under the Tax Cut Frenzy
Yesterday, the U.S. Senate passed the 'Beautiful Bill' (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) by a narrow margin of 51 to 49, marking the formal implementation of the large-scale tax reduction plan promoted by the Trump administration. The core content of the bill includes:
Permanent reduction of corporate income tax: from 35% to 21%, continuing the achievements of the 2017 tax reform; progressive tax reductions on personal income tax: increasing standard deductions, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay; soaring debt ceiling: a one-time increase of $4 trillion in the debt ceiling, paving the way for fiscal stimulus.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market:
Corporate cash flow explosion: Tax cuts will directly increase profits for listed companies, especially tech giants and crypto-related firms (such as Coinbase, Robinhood), and their rising stock prices may lead to an increase in the valuation of crypto assets.
Capital overflow effect: With increased post-tax income for businesses, some funds may flow into the crypto market through venture capital or personal investments, pushing up demand for mainstream coins like ETH.
Rising inflation expectations: The combination of tax cuts and a $4 trillion debt expansion raises market concerns about future inflation rebounds, activating ETH's safe-haven properties as 'digital gold'.
Vietnam Tariff War: Crypto Opportunities in the Restructuring Trade Landscape
Trump announced yesterday that a trade agreement with Vietnam has been reached, with core terms including:
Vietnam's export tariffs to the U.S. increased to 20% (previously 10%); the U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on re-exported goods from Vietnam; Vietnam implemented zero tariffs on U.S. products.
Impact on the cryptocurrency market:
Supply chain relocation accelerates: Manufacturing costs in Vietnam are rising, and some companies may shift production capacity to other Southeast Asian countries or back to the U.S., increasing demand for cross-border payments, benefiting stablecoins (like USDT) and cross-border settlement protocols (like Ethereum's Layer2 network).
Safe-haven funds inflow: The Vietnamese stock market (VN Index) fell 1.2% yesterday, while the crypto market became a safe haven for funds due to its 'decentralized' attribute, with ETH as the leading smart contract platform absorbing some hot money.
Expectations of a prolonged trade war: If tariff policies continue, the global trade system may fragment, further highlighting the value of cryptocurrency as a 'borderless asset'.
U.S. stock surge: A chain reaction of rising risk appetite
Yesterday, U.S. stocks surged collectively in anticipation of the passing of the 'Beautiful Bill' and easing trade war expectations:
The Dow rose 0.8%, the Nasdaq rose 1.2%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.0%; Nike's stock price soared 3.5% (Vietnam is its largest production base, and the tariff agreement eliminates uncertainty); Coinbase rose 2.1%, Robinhood rose 4.3% (crypto concept stocks leading the rally).
Impact on the cryptocurrency market:
Transmission of risk appetite: The rise in U.S. stocks is usually accompanied by an increase in investors' risk appetite, with capital flowing from the bond market and gold into the stock and crypto markets, benefiting ETH as a high volatility asset.
Liquidity overflow: If the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate hikes due to tariff policy adjustments, expectations of market liquidity easing will increase, benefiting growth assets like ETH.
Narrative resonance: The trend of tokenization in U.S. stocks is accelerating (such as Robinhood's layout of Layer2 public chains), blurring the boundaries between traditional finance and the crypto world, with the value of ETH as infrastructure being re-evaluated.
The direct push for ETH's surge: Resonance of technical analysis and capital situation
Technical analysis:
Breaking through key resistance levels: The ETH price broke through $2557 yesterday (previous high), the MACD indicator showed a golden cross, and the RSI rose to 65 (neutral to strong range). Trading volume increased: 24-hour trading volume reached $24 billion, a 40% increase from the previous day, indicating a strong willingness for capital entry.
Capital situation:
Whale address movements: On-chain data shows that three whale addresses withdrew 2797 ETH (approximately $6.86 million) from exchanges, indicating that large holders are reluctant to sell.
DeFi locked value hits a new high: Total locked value on the Ethereum Layer2 network surpassed $8 billion, with on-chain activity of Arbitrum, Optimism, and others soaring.
Future outlook: Can the euphoria continue?
In the short term, ETH price may continue to rise, but two major risks need to be heeded:
Fluctuating tariff policies: If the Vietnam agreement changes, it may trigger a reversal in market sentiment;
Federal Reserve policy shift: If inflation rebounds unexpectedly, interest rate hike expectations may suppress risk assets.
In the long run, the logic behind ETH's rise remains solid:
Ecosystem expansion: New protocols like Uniswap V4 and zkSync are launched, potentially reigniting the DeFi summer; institutional entry: Trump Media applied for a BTC/ETH mixed ETF, and European institutional funds (such as KBC Bank) are entering; macro narrative: The value of decentralized finance (DeFi) is highlighted amid the global trade war and monetary easing cycle.
Twelve years of financial journey, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the crypto world: Insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to the K-line judge teaching you how to steadily appreciate value, risks and opportunities coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!#美股代币化 #大而美法案