Core driving force of the surge: Trump's tariff black swan strikes globally.
1. News detonator
Trump suddenly announces: Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on exports to the US, with transit tariffs as high as 40%! He also stated, "American products can enter Vietnam with zero tariffs."
Market interpretation: Panic in the global supply chain is surging, with funds urgently flowing into crypto assets as a hedge.
Vietnam, as an electronics manufacturing hub, may have its tariffs impact the technology supply chain.
"Zero tariff export" clause hints at tightening expectations for dollar liquidity, with Bitcoin becoming a safe haven.
The crypto market quickly captures policy changes, with ETH becoming the first choice for leveraged funds.
2. Precise coordination on the technical front.
Violent breakthrough of triangular convergence: A long bullish candle surged to 2618 between 22:00-23:00, with volume increasing by 300%.
MACD underwater golden cross accelerates: DIF crosses above DEA, histogram turns green and volume decreases.
Whale ambush traces: Continuous appearance of large ETH buy orders in the 2550-2570 range, prearranging for policy trends.
Subsequent trend simulation: Can the bulls continue their offensive?
Strong signal
The aftershocks of policy are not over: Historical experience shows that Trump's tariff policies often trigger 3-5 days of market inertia fluctuations.
On-chain whales increase positions: Glassnode detected that a certain institutional address added 120,000 ETH last night, approximately $310 million.
Technical structure repair: After a pullback to 2556 on the 1-hour chart, it stabilized at the BOLL midline of 2542, with EMA5/10 showing a bullish arrangement.
Risk warning
2618-2650 high-pressure zone: July 2 high + weekly descending trend line double pressure.
MACD top divergence is emerging: If the price reaches a new high while the MACD peak is lower than the previous high, it will trigger a correction. Tariff policy clarification risk: The White House has not yet released official documents, beware of "buy the expectation, sell the fact."
Big D's viewpoint
This surge is essentially a short-term market driven by a policy black swan and technical resonance. Trump's tariffs have resurfaced, signaling a sharp increase in global financial uncertainty. As a highly liquid crypto asset, ETH will continue to attract safe-haven funds. It is recommended to closely monitor the support level at 2550; if it holds, there is hope to challenge the 2700 mark within the week, but caution against profit-taking pressure after policy implementation is necessary!
$ETH
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