Litecoin (LTC) recently slipped under the $90 mark, raising questions for investors. Is this a signal to buy, or a sign of further declines? While the immediate price action might seem concerning, a deeper dive into market indicators and historical trends suggests that the fourth quarter of 2025 could be a pivotal and exciting period for the popular altcoin.

Shifting Tides: Buyer Enthusiasm Returns

For the first time since December 2024, the 90-day Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for LTC has turned positive. This crucial metric measures the balance between buying and selling pressure in the market. A positive flip indicates a "taker buy dominant" phase, meaning more market participants are actively purchasing LTC at current prices. This shift signals a significant change in market sentiment, suggesting renewed confidence among buyers.

The ETF Factor: A Game Changer on the Horizon?

A major catalyst that could fuel LTC's resurgence is the growing anticipation of a Litecoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Analysts from Bloomberg have placed a 95% probability on an LTC ETF, alongside potential Solana (SOL) and XRP ETFs, receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by October 2, 2025.

If approved, an LTC ETF would be a historic milestone, opening the floodgates for institutional investors and providing broader retail exposure to the altcoin. This increased accessibility and legitimacy could significantly boost demand and price appreciation.

While the long-term outlook appears promising, investors should be mindful of historical seasonality. Data reveals that August and September have historically been the weakest months for LTC, with average negative returns of 6.99% and 5.06% respectively since 2012.

However, this short-term weakness typically precedes a strong Q4 turnaround. November, in particular, stands out as LTC's best-performing month historically, boasting an impressive 94.79% average return.

This seasonal pattern aligns perfectly with the potential ETF approval timeline. If the SEC greenlights an LTC ETF around October, it would coincide with the historical pivot in LTC's performance, potentially setting the stage for a powerful rally into the end of the year. The current price dip, therefore, might not be a warning sign, but rather an opportunity for strategic accumulation.

Echoes of 2024: A Familiar Setup for a Breakout?

Looking at LTC's daily chart, its current price structure bears a striking resemblance to its trajectory in 2024. After a robust Q1 rally, LTC entered a correction phase and remained suppressed below a descending trendline throughout Q2.

The price has now retested a high-conviction daily demand zone, a critical area that previously served as a launchpad for a breakout in Q4 2024. Sustained accumulation within this zone could trigger another significant rally. Last year, a breakthrough of the descending trendline and a reclaim of both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signaled bullish strength, leading to new yearly highs in Q4.

A similar breakout above the current trendline and a bullish reclaim of these key moving averages would provide strong technical validation, paving the way for continued upside momentum heading into Q4 2025.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own thorough research before making any financial decisions.