Hi Binance family!
After an in‑depth study and hands‑on monitoring throughout June, one coin stands out as a high-risk no-go for July 2025: XRP (Ripple). Here's the full breakdown:
📉 Weak Price Structure & Volatility
XRP is trading around $2.19–2.22, showing choppy movement with a range between $2.08–2.32 in the past week .
A bearish ascending wedge on the 4-hour chart could trigger a breakdown to $1.85, which represents a roughly 15% drop from current levels .
Recent whale dumping—approximately 560 million XRP sold from large wallets over two weeks—suggests distribution and weak demand .
⚖️ On‑Chain & Whale Data Mixed Signals
While Santiment data shows whale accumulation of 610 million XRP worth $1.33 billion , coinciding large address sell-offs muddy the picture.
The current 90‑day moving average of whale flows has indeed flipped positive—something that preceded a 420% rally in a prior cycle —but that was followed by sideways action. This time, momentum is failing to build firm support above $2.40, the key breakout level .
⚖️ Regulatory & Macro Cloudiness
The long‑running SEC vs Ripple case remains unresolved, with ETF approvals still in limbo. BeInCrypto’s Temujin Louie remarked, “XRP remains a highly speculative asset… the SEC’s postponement isn’t entirely surprising” .
Despite Grayscale’s ETF filing indirectly boosting expectations, Polymarket odds for an XRP ETF slipped to 60% from 98% in June . That’s a red flag for July entries.
🧭 Technical & Sentiment Risks
XRP currently trades within a cramped $2.00–$2.40 range for over three months—clearly indecisive—without a clear catalyst .
Recent whale movements to exchanges and subdued XRP Ledger payment volume (down 70% in late June) reflect cooling sentiment .
Key Figures & Risks Summary
Price Range: $2.08–$2.32 → current ~$2.19
Bearish structure: could drop ~15% to ~$1.85
Whale action: 560M sold vs 610M acquired—signal conflict
ETF odds: down from 98% → 60%
Bottom Line: July isn’t the time
Between unresolved legal risk, high volatility, conflicting whale flows, and technical stagnation, XRP lacks a clear bullish setup this month. Unless you’re positioned for high-risk, speculative swings below $2.00, steer clear. Consider redirecting capital to assets with firmer structure, clear catalysts, and stronger on‑chain growth. Trade wisely!