According to the British bank, strong institutional interest and treasury purchases could lead Bitcoin to surpass records later this year.

Bitcoin may be on track for its "best second half in history," driven by strong institutional interest and treasury purchases, wrote Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, in a note released this Wednesday (2) — just hours before the asset surpassed $109,000 for the first time in three weeks.

The analyst from the British bank predicts that acquisitions in the third and fourth quarters of this year will individually surpass the robust 245,000 BTC purchased in the second quarter. He stated that the asset should exceed the previous record of $111,814, reached in May. "Bitcoin will print new all-time highs in the second half," Kendrick wrote.

He added that this happens because Bitcoin broke its historical pattern of price declines in the 18 months following a halving event — "which would typically lead to declines in September and October 2025."

But not everything will be smooth, the analyst warned.

"We believe prices may be volatile at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth, amid concerns that this pattern may repeat," he wrote. "However, we expect prices to resume the upward trend, supported by the continued strong flow of ETFs and Bitcoin purchases by treasuries."

He noted that both the support of companies with BTC treasuries and ETFs were absent in all previous halving cycles.

Effect of Bitcoin reserves

In recent months, companies holding treasuries in Bitcoin have multiplied, following the example of older buyers like Metaplanet and, primarily, Strategy.

Bitcoin spot index funds fell on Tuesday, with an outflow of $342 million in assets, ending a streak of 15 days of positive inflows, according to British manager Farside Investors.

Still, these funds now manage over $130 billion in assets, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) growing faster than any other product in the 32-year history of the ETF industry. The IBIT already manages over $70 billion.

A growing list of 141 publicly listed companies now holds 849,400 Bitcoins, with a market value exceeding $92 billion, according to data from the site bitcointreasuries.net.

Strategy pioneered the Bitcoin treasury strategy by shifting its focus from software development in 2020. The company, which is traded on Nasdaq and has been buying Bitcoin almost weekly throughout the year, now holds over 597,000 bitcoins — valued at around $65 billion.

The cryptocurrency market as a whole has ignored concerns about the global trade war of the U.S. and the harsh criticism from President Donald Trump towards U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates.

Speaking at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal, Powell acknowledged that the Fed would have already started cutting rates this year, were it not for Donald Trump's trade policies.