Liquidation Night: The Darkest Moment Interwoven with Debt and Candlesticks
On March 12, 2024, the ETH contract liquidation storm swept in, and I watched helplessly as my account's 12.5 BTC equity went to zero. At the same time, the 72,451.36 yuan debt on three credit card bills was glaringly eye-catching, and the 'forced liquidation' pop-up from the exchange seemed to mock my failure. At 3:17 AM, standing in front of the refrigerator at a 24-hour convenience store, I bought a bowl of braised beef noodles with the last 5 yuan I had—this was all my liquid funds after the liquidation. On my phone, the bank's collection system's mechanical female voice kept repeating 'Your account has been overdue for 15 days,' and a friend messaged me urging me to 'find a decent job,' while the candlestick chart showing a 28.7% drop seemed to write my failure's epitaph.
90-Day Transformation: From Impulsive Gambler to Quantitative Trading Expert
Phase 1: Reshape Trading Mindset (Days 1-15)
- Letting Go of Trading: Uninstall all leveraged trading apps, set the exchange login password to '72451'—the last five digits of the debt amount, reminding myself of my debt situation each time I log in.
- Record Failures: Handwrite a 20-page trading journal, reviewing each trade using the 'Event-Emotion-Outcome' method. For example, on 2024.3.5, I blindly followed the trend chasing SOL, resulting in a loss of 2300 yuan.
- Simulated Practical Training: Start simulated trading on the FMZ quantitative platform, strictly limiting daily trading time to 60 minutes (9:30-10:30), and once the time is exceeded, copy (Futures Trading Management Regulations) Article 2 as punishment.
Phase 2: Establishing a Quantitative Trading System (Days 16-45)
- Unique '135 Quantitative Model':
- Precise Timing: Only place orders between 20:00-20:15 Beijing time, as this is when the CME Bitcoin futures electronic market opens and market liquidity is ample.
- Strict Risk Control: Single trade position not exceeding 30% of total funds, stop-loss line set at '20-period ATR×2.5', historical data backtesting shows that this parameter can withstand 83% of intraday price fluctuations.
- Multi-Dimensional Entry: Set 5 trading conditions, such as ETH price above the 200-day moving average, 4-hour RSI below 30, and a 40% reduction in trading volume compared to the previous day, only entering the market when all conditions are met.
- Scientific Review Mechanism: Build a trading evaluation table using Excel, analyzing from three dimensions: the fit of technical indicators, emotional state during trading (judged by monitoring heart rate with a smart bracelet), and the overall market environment (referencing the VIX index and cryptocurrency fear index). The review on day 30 found that 72.3% of losing trades occurred during periods of significant emotional fluctuation.
The Road to Comeback: From Paying Off Debt to Achieving Profit
Phase 1 (4.1-4.30): Validate Quantitative Strategy
- First Profit: On April 5, when the ETH price was 1900 dollars, I placed a long order with a stop loss set at 1850 dollars and a take profit at 1980 dollars, successfully earning 80 US dollars.
- Monthly Performance: 12 trades throughout the month, win rate of 66.6%, profit-loss ratio of 2.1:1, maximum single trade loss of 150 US dollars (strictly adhering to stop-loss), account funds increased from 5000 US dollars to 6200 US dollars, first withdrawing 14,000 yuan to repay credit cards.
Phase 2 (5.1-5.31): Grasp the Market Cycle
- Classic Battle: Anticipated LTC halving market, opened long positions at a low of 85 dollars on May 10, based on the historical data pattern of 'average increase of 22% in the 30 days before halving events,' and took profit at 98 dollars, earning 1200 US dollars on a single trade.
- Important Milestone: On May 20, successfully repaid 23,456 yuan in debt to China Merchants Bank, deliberately keeping the bank SMS as motivation to continue persisting.
Phase 3 (6.1-6.30): Strengthen Risk Awareness
- Steady Strategy: Initiate the '500 USDT Thursday Investment Plan,' regularly buying BTC with USDT to avoid risks from subjective judgment.
- Victory Moment: On June 30, repaid the last interest of 782 yuan. That day, I walked into Starbucks and spent 32 yuan on an Americano—this was the first time since November 2023 that I paid for a non-essential purchase.
Three Golden Rules for Traders in Difficulty
1. Scientific Stop-Loss Setting: The stop-loss strategy of 'ATR×2.5' is based on the statistical principle that '2.5 times the standard deviation can cover 98.7% of probability events.' For example, if the 20-period ATR is 50 dollars, a stop-loss range of 125 dollars is sufficient to handle 98% of intraday fluctuations.
2. Choose Trading Time: During the period of 20:00-20:15, melatonin in the human body has not yet been secreted in large quantities, which can avoid decision fatigue at night; at the same time, the liquidity in the U.S. stock pre-market is good, accounting for 23% of the total daily trading volume.
3. Break Down Debt Goals: Spread the 72,451 yuan debt over 90 days, needing to earn only 1,000 US dollars per day (based on a 6.8 exchange rate). For example, with a BTC/USDT trading pair valued at 50,000 US dollars, capturing a 0.2% (100 US dollars) price fluctuation can meet the daily target, greatly alleviating psychological pressure.
To this day, I still keep the record of the liquidation on March 12, 2024, with the phrase on the back 'When candlesticks become probability distribution charts, debt is no longer the end' written in a way that has become blurred from repeated rubbing, but it constantly reminds me: In the world of trading, only by strictly adhering to discipline and scientifically planning can one move from failure to success.#美股代币化 $BTC $ETH
