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BTC/USDT Weekly Outlook – “All Eyes on the Range”
Date: July 2, 2025
Timeframe Covered: Weekly → Daily → 4-Hour
Sentiment: Neutral
Prepared for: Binance Traders & Analysts
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⚡️ Market Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) continues to trade in a tight consolidation range, hovering around $107,500. Bulls and bears remain locked in a standoff, with no clear breakout or breakdown just yet.
🔍 Key inflection zones lie between $106,500 support and $108,000 resistance — the outcome of this battle will likely define the trend for July.
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📍 Key Levels to Watch
🔼 $108,000 – Breakout Trigger
A clean move above this zone, especially with a volume spike, could open the doors to $110K–$119K.
🛡️ $106,500 – Structure Line
Holds the bullish bias. If broken, it may shift the market structure to bearish, especially on Daily and 4H timeframes.
📉 $102,000 – Bearish Magnet
Target for sellers if $106.5K breaks, aligning with previous demand zones.
⚙️ $96K–$102K – Tactical FVG Zone
This Fair Value Gap (SMC concept) is active short-term support, tied to recent inefficiencies from mid-June.
🧭 $91K–$95K – Macro FVG Zone
Long-term imbalance zone. Becomes relevant only if BTC breaks structure significantly.
🎯 $110K–$119K – Bullish Extension
Final upside targets for the week if bulls dominate and sentiment aligns.
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📈 Market Structure & Price Action
🟢 Weekly Structure: Still bullish (Higher Highs + Higher Lows), but signs of indecision (Doji candle) suggest fatigue.
🟡 Daily Structure: Vulnerable. Consolidation with low momentum, price riding the 20EMA.
🔴 4-Hour Structure: Fragile. Last drop to $104,843 shows wicks probing liquidity—watch $106,500 closely for BOS (Break of Structure).
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💹 Volume Outlook
📊 Macro View: Daily volume spiked +10.45% to $46.63B, indicating renewed institutional attention.
🔍 Micro View: 4H and Daily volumes are tapering, suggesting exhaustion unless fresh catalysts emerge.
⏳ Verdict: A real move will need a breakout with strong volume, not just wicks or fake-outs.
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🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Alignment
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
🔹$96K–$102K: Local inefficiency from recent range.
🔹$91K–$95K: Macro magnet from Q1-Q2 2025.
Liquidity Pools:
🔺Above $108K → Buy stops.
💼 Retail breakout buyers’ stop-losses stack here. If price sweeps this zone without strength, it could be a fakeout trap. But with volume? It’s liftoff.
🔺 Below $106.5K and $105K → Sell-side liquidity targets.
💼 If BTC breaks these zones, Smart Money could flush retail longs to reload at a discount. Expect sharp moves and potential reclaims from these levels.
🔄 CHOCH/BOS Zones (Change of Character / Break of Structure) :
🔹A BOS below $106.5K changes the short-term bias to bearish.
🔹A break and close above $108K invalidates bearish setups and confirms bullish momentum.
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😐 Sentiment Check
Fear & Greed Index: Neutral (64 – mild greed).
On-Chain Activity: Mixed. Dormant supply rising.
Price Action Clues: No strong rejections or breakout yet.
🎭 Interpretation: Market is undecided. Traders are waiting for a breakout — and so should you.
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🎯 Scenarios & Trade Setup
✅ Bullish Play
Entry: Above $108,000
Targets: $110,000 → $119,000
Invalidation: Close below $106,500
Conditions: Volume breakout + bullish price action
❌ Bearish Play
Entry: Below $106,500
Targets: $102,000 → $95,000
Invalidation: Reclaim of $108,000
Conditions: Clean BOS with strong sell pressure
⏸️ Neutral Play
Action: Standby
Focus: Volume and structure confirmation
Hint: Avoid traps within the $106.5K–$108K chop zone
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🧩 Final Thoughts
This is not the time to guess — it’s the time to react. The BTC market is coiling like a spring. Whether it breaks north or south, the levels are clearly mapped.
📍 Let the chart speak. Wait for confirmation. Then execute with precision.