Historic moment! Bitcoin surged past $107,800 with lightning speed in the early hours of July 2, achieving the craziest single-day increase since 2025. However, behind this breakthrough, on-chain data is releasing chilling signals - exchange balances are continuously net flowing out, miner sell-offs have dropped to historic lows, while short-term holders are cashing out frantically. Is this the beginning of a new era of bull market led by institutions, or a slaughter trap meticulously designed by operators?
1. The life-and-death game revealed by on-chain data
The Damocles sword of supply tightening
After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's daily issuance will decrease to 900 coins, and 74% of circulating coins have been locked by long-term holders for over two years. The net outflow from exchanges reached 51,000 BTC in April-May 2025, and Binance's holdings dropped sharply from 595,000 to 544,500. This 'liquidity exhaustion' means that any new buying may trigger violent fluctuations, but it also lays a deadly trap for bears - once panic selling is triggered, the market will fall into a short squeeze deadlock of 'no coins to sell'.The shadow war between miners and whales
The behavior of the miner community serves as a market barometer: despite daily income dropping to $34 million (the lowest since April), BTC inflow to exchanges has plummeted from 23,000 coins in February to 4,000 coins in June. The total holdings of miners holding 100-1,000 BTC have surged to 65,000 coins (the highest since November 2024), with a net unrealized profit margin of 48%. This indicates that the core miner group is resisting market volatility with a 'holding firm and not selling' stance, and their collective will will directly determine whether $107,800 is a new starting point or a guillotine.
2. The dual reversal codes of news
The conspiracies and schemes of institutional entry
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) assets are expected to exceed $34.3 billion by the end of 2024, surpassing gold ETFs, while Coinbase data shows that the number of Bitcoin wallets holding over $1 million surged in the first half of 2025. However, VanEck warns that if perpetual contract funding rates exceed 10% and continue for three months, it will be a dangerous signal of market overheating. Currently, the derivatives market's open interest is nearing historical highs, while spot demand has plummeted by 50% from its peak, creating a likely trigger for a bear raid due to the divergence between 'leverage boom' and 'real demand shrinkage'.The Damocles sword of regulation hangs high
The G20 plans to complete a global regulatory framework for stablecoins by 2025, while the EU MiCA regulations and the U.S. (STABLE Act) have entered the implementation phase. If regulatory agencies suddenly tighten requirements for stablecoin issuance or exchange compliance, it could instantly drain market liquidity. More dangerously, Bitcoin prices have oscillated in the $100,000 - $110,000 range for seven weeks; the technical 'long-term consolidation must drop' curse and the resonance of regulatory black swans may turn tonight into a nightmare for bulls.
3. The ultimate deduction of an emotional battlefield
I predict that tonight will likely see a short squeeze, but beware of the deadly turning point at 4 a.m.!
Bullish logic: On-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTH) account for 68% of holdings, and the SOPR metric (1.03) indicates that selling pressure has not yet spiraled out of control. If the price stabilizes at $107,800 and breaks through the psychological barrier of $108,000, it might trigger a 'breakout chasing' program from quantitative funds, pushing the price straight to the MVRV selling pressure critical point of $118,000.
Bear trap: The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 63 (greed zone), and the RSI metric (55) is not yet overbought, indicating that the market still has further emotional upward space. However, close attention must be paid to the net flow of exchanges and miner sell-off data - if there are large transfers to exchanges tonight, it may trigger a 'cascade sell-off'.
The volatility of Bitcoin is approaching historical extremes, and the combination of exhausted exchange liquidity and high derivatives leverage may make tonight a 'Black Swan Night' in the crypto circle. Whether you are a bull or a bear, be sure to set strict stop-losses, because in front of the new threshold of $107,800, there are no absolute winners, only survivors!
Do you think this is the starting point of a bull market or a trap set by the operators? Leave your thoughts in the comments section and follow me for real-time intelligence on the cryptocurrency battlefield!
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