Recently, two highly influential figures in the political and business sectors of the United States — President Trump and business tycoon Elon Musk — have seen their relationship shift from close allies to open rupture. This dramatic change has attracted widespread attention. In the financial market, especially in the cryptocurrency market, ripples have also begun to emerge, as investors speculate on how this 'political-business fallout effect' will influence the direction of the cryptocurrency market. The incident originated from the 'Big and Beautiful' bill promoted by the Trump administration. This bill includes massive tax and spending adjustments, specifically eliminating subsidies for electric vehicles and solar energy, directly touching the core interests of Musk's company Tesla and others. Musk reacted strongly, publicly criticizing the bill on social media as 'extremely crazy and destructive' and even announced that if the bill passed, he would form a new political party, the 'American Party', and fund candidates to challenge Republican lawmakers who support the bill. Trump did not back down, retaliating that Musk was angry due to losing electric vehicle subsidies and threatened to reconsider government subsidies and contracts for Musk's companies, even considering 'expelling Musk from the country.' From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, this event first impacts market sentiment. The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive and speculative, significantly influenced by external factors. The enormous influence of Trump and Musk in the political and business realms makes their conflict a focal point of market attention. Such high-level political-business discrepancies and conflicts can easily trigger investor concerns and unease, subsequently affecting overall market investment confidence. For example, after their conflict became public, Tesla's stock price plummeted by 14.26% on June 5 local time, evaporating over $150 billion in market value, and some related cryptocurrencies, such as Dogecoin, also saw a significant drop of about 10% on the same day. This reflects the market's negative reaction to the uncertainty brought about by the breakdown of their relationship; such panic may spread to the entire cryptocurrency market, leading investors to choose to wait and see or sell off their held cryptocurrencies, exacerbating market volatility. The flow of funds may also change due to this incident. When Trump and Musk had a good relationship, Musk's deep involvement in politics and expansion of his business empire attracted significant capital inflow into related sectors. However, now that they have split, some investors who were originally optimistic about Musk's business projects and attracted by his political influence may withdraw from related cryptocurrency projects due to risk aversion. Meanwhile, due to the Trump administration's potential suppression of Musk's companies in policy-making, market expectations for investments in new energy, technology, and other related fields may change, as funds reassess risk-return ratios and flow into other cryptocurrency projects deemed more stable and less influenced by policy, or simply exit the cryptocurrency market to turn to more traditional and safer investment areas, such as gold and bonds. Furthermore, from the perspective of policy expectations, the cryptocurrency market has always been highly influenced by policies from various countries. The Trump administration's stance on cryptocurrency regulatory policies has been ambiguous, and now, with the breakdown of relations with Musk, who is an important promoter in the cryptocurrency field (for example, he has had a significant impact on the price trends of cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin), the deterioration of his relationship with the government may lead the Trump administration to adopt a more conservative and stringent approach towards cryptocurrency regulation. This is because the Trump administration may wish to weaken Musk's influence in this area by strengthening regulation of the cryptocurrency market, in order to maintain its political authority and policy implementation. Once regulatory policies tighten, transactions, issuance, and circulation of cryptocurrencies will be restricted, which undoubtedly presents huge challenges for the overall development of the cryptocurrency market, stifling market activity and innovation. Although the rupture between Trump and Musk seems to be a dispute between politics and business, its impact has quietly seeped into the cryptocurrency market in today's highly interconnected financial markets. Market investors need to closely monitor the subsequent developments of this event and cautiously assess its impact on cryptocurrency investment strategies to cope with potential market changes.

#特朗普马斯克分歧