Since June, I have predicted over a dozen times, and basically, I have been correct, not only in position but also in timing and movement trajectory.
However, I perfectly predicted that it would drop to around 98200, then once again predicted a rebound ideally around 103000-104000, which would not effectively exceed 104000, much less exceed around 106200. However, due to #以色列伊朗冲突 positive news, it went far beyond that. On that day, I admitted my mistake to my fans and temporarily updated the article to analyze the situation. I then proposed three scenarios, initially thinking it was the second scenario, but finally confirmed the third scenario on June 29, indicating that Bitcoin might have a historical new high.
However, because the rebound did not exceed 104000 and certainly did not effectively exceed around 106200, there are always some haters who keep bringing this up. Suppose you went long at 98200 and took profits at 103000, making a profit of over 5000. Then you shorted at 103000, effectively stopping loss at 104000 or 106200, you would still have a profit of 2000-4000. Why worry just because of this issue? Can't understand it!
In the June 30 article (Script Three Confirmed, July 2-8 Bull Demon King Cuts Through the Daily Bollinger Upper Band, Even Historical New Highs! Monthly Bollinger Upper Band Is Not a Dream!), I pointed out that the historical high would only be reached on July 6-8 and mentioned that piercing 107250 would lead to a correction. There is nothing wrong with my article.
However, after piercing 107250, many haters began to predict a drop below 100,000 and questioned me, saying: Didn't you say Bitcoin would reach a new high? Where is your new high? As long as a viewpoint does not align with their wishes, they will lash out. However, the market does not operate based on any one person's will; no one can do that, only by adhering to the truth! The truth is that the rebound after Bitcoin hits 98200 has not ended!
Since June 29, I have been watching Bitcoin reach new historical highs, but there are still many haters saying I am bearish on Bitcoin. How can they distort the facts? I forecasted that the correction would bottom out on July 2-3, and that the historical high would be reached on July 6-8. Is this bearish on Bitcoin? Why is it that the more bearish I am, the higher Bitcoin goes? Am I a fool? Isn't looking for historical highs the same as being bullish on Bitcoin? What do you think?
On the night of June 30, after 10 PM, I pointed out that altcoins were forming a small degree peak, which might evolve into a large degree peak, and earnestly explained that altcoins often peak before Bitcoin. On the night of June 30 and the morning of July 1, I advised fans to short altcoins.
Many fans have been questioning me: [How can you be bullish on Bitcoin while being bearish on altcoins? Shouldn't Bitcoin and altcoins rise and fall together?]
To this end, I have given many examples:
Altcoins are expected to peak around December 17, 2024, while Bitcoin will only peak on January 20, 2025.
Altcoins are expected to peak around May 12, 2025, while Bitcoin will only peak on May 22, 2025.
So is it abnormal for altcoins to peak on June 30, 2025, while Bitcoin only peaks on July 6-8, 2025?
Many followers actually understand this principle, but they pretend to be asleep, always having a fantasy in their hearts, hoping that their altcoins can reach new highs along with Bitcoin. This is the reason why many people lose money in spot trading! Using Bitcoin's trend to predict altcoins will undoubtedly result in a severe loss! For altcoins, you can only refer to the three charts published in previous articles (The Bear Market is Long, When Will Altcoin Season Arrive? Three Charts Expose the Cruel Truth!).
Be bullish on Bitcoin and bearish on altcoins, which means: [Every correction should be a buying opportunity for Bitcoin; do not attempt to short Bitcoin], [Every rebound is a chance to short altcoins; do not attempt to go long on altcoins]. Please do not oppose me, why?
You know the previous low for Bitcoin, and you know the previous high for altcoins, making it easy to set stop losses.
Never attempt to short Bitcoin before the rebound is over, because many people trade without stop losses, holding on until historical highs lead to liquidation. Although I do not recommend holding positions, even if you open a long position incorrectly, as long as you do not get liquidated, you will have a chance to recover. The stronger the rebound, the greater the possibility that Bitcoin will reach a historical new high! Do not try to go against the trend! I wouldn’t dare, nor should you! Those who are trying to short Bitcoin at 100,000 are the most pitiable!
Likewise, shorting altcoins should be well thought out!
Many people do not understand this principle, blindly opening 20x or 50x leverage to short Bitcoin. Even when they make a profit, they do not take profits due to greed, and after making a profit, they still hold on to the cost price and never want to exit with their capital intact. In the end, profits turn into losses, and they continue to hold until liquidation.
On July 1, I pointed out the buying strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum in ():
This morning, we have already reached the aggressive buying zone of 105614 and 2376.11, but the conservative buying zone has not yet been reached. Is missing the opportunity worse than being trapped?
This afternoon, the predicted Bitcoin price of 107380 exceeded expectations, but Ethereum exceeding 2448 wasn't too much.
So has Bitcoin really bottomed out? The post shared in () still has reference value:
Part of the second downward wave has already been completed, and there is a certain probability that the correction here will end directly.
If the rebound effectively reaches Fibonacci 0.8 at 108052, or the 4-hour MACD shows a golden cross, we will consider the correction to be over.
Until confirmed, we will temporarily continue to believe that the adjustment has not ended.
The latest prediction chart is as follows:
If 105100.19 is not the bottom, the correction target is around 104308.2 (focus here first), but a stronger point could be around 104622-104744.61, while a weaker point might reach 103494.99.
Unless it effectively stabilizes above 108052 or pierces 108799.99, or a 'true golden cross' occurs on the 4-hour MACD, otherwise the correction has not ended.
If 105100.19 is the bottom of the correction, the peak of the third upward wave is likely between 111644.8-112513.18-113572.18-115690.18 (high probability of reaching a historical new high).
One last important thing to remind everyone, please pay attention!
If 105100.19 is the bottom for Bitcoin, the high point for altcoins on June 30 could be the recent rebound's peak, but there may also be higher points, so be particularly careful when shorting.
If 105100.19 is not the bottom for Bitcoin, the high point for altcoins on June 30 is likely the recent rebound's peak. Shorting will be easier! (Still, we do not rule out the possibility of a few strong altcoins making new highs).
The latest analysis of Ethereum was posted in ()—please check it out in () yourself.
💡 Note: Investing is like walking at night; always carry the lantern of 'Risk Awareness' to avoid the trading fog and refuse to blindly chase the light.
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