Cardano Confidence Crisis: Will ADA Price Drop Below $0.52?

In June 2025, Cardano's performance was disappointing. Despite positive progress in the ecosystem, it still fell by 16%. The launch of the cbETH cross-chain bridge, ADA's integration with Coinbase Base L2, and widespread speculation about cross-chain XRP compatibility failed to support its price momentum.

Adding to the woes, an outflow of $182 million, sluggish market sentiment, and the reality that only 46% of ADA holders remain profitable reflect a loss of investor confidence. However, all eyes are currently on Grayscale's proposal for the first U.S. Cardano ETF. If approved, it could change the market landscape by providing regulated investment opportunities and attracting institutional investor interest.

Dramatic Drop in Active Addresses

A review of on-chain metrics shows that the number of active addresses on Cardano has significantly decreased, dropping from around 24,000 to below 18,000 by June 21. This sharp decline indicates a drastic reduction in user activity, which is often a warning sign during periods of price stagnation.

Despite recent upgrades, user participation has not seen a substantial increase, highlighting a growing disconnect between ecosystem expansion and retail engagement. The decline in this metric also aligns with ongoing price trends, suggesting weak demand during the network's evolution.

ADA Price Analysis

As of the time of writing, Cardano is trading at $0.5590, down 1.02% on the day and 3.81% over the past week. With ADA hovering between critical levels, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with $0.5235 serving as immediate support and $0.5989 to $0.6533 as resistance levels.

The RSI is at 49.65, indicating momentum is close to neutral, while the Bollinger Bands show pressure. If the selling trend continues, ADA may revisit the bearish target of $0.52. Conversely, a breakout above $0.59 could open the door for testing $0.64, especially if ETF optimism increases and on-chain participation rises.