The Correct Investment in a Bull Market!!!
A Wealth Guide from Cognition to Execution: Understand Trends, Secure Returns
1. Trend Cognition Section
Trend Inertia Law
When the bull market engine starts, it creates continuous upward momentum. Historical data shows that the average duration of the bull market in 2017 was 275 days, while in 2021 it lasted 540 days. It is recommended to use the 20-day moving average as a trend confirmation tool, and to build positions in three batches after a breakout (30% + 30% + 40%) to avoid falling into the "precise bottom fishing trap".
Volatility Utilization Law
Analysis of on-chain data reveals that sharp declines in a bull market are often accompanied by large withdrawals from exchanges. It is advisable to set limit buy orders at 15-20% below the current price using a grid strategy to take advantage of market panic. In 2020, ETH completed a 40% "pin" rebound within 3 days.
2. Asset Allocation Section
3. 30-30-40 Position Matrix
• Mainstream Coin Positions (BTC + ETH) account for 30%
• Leading Projects (such as AGIX in the AI sector) account for 30%
• Innovative Protocols (such as RWA sector) account for 40%
Adopt a quarterly rebalancing strategy to ensure profits are secured.
Sentiment Contrarian Indicator
When negative comments about a certain coin on social media exceed 70% for three consecutive days, it often signals a buying opportunity. The Santiment social sentiment indicator can be used to assist in judgment, but should be combined with fundamental validations such as development activity (Github submission volume).
3. Trading Execution Section
5. Holder Dividend Effect
Statistics show that addresses holding BTC for over 120 days during the 2021 bull market achieved an average return of 580%. It is recommended to use cold wallets to store core positions, leaving only 10% of funds for short-term operations.
Retracement Cycle Regularity
According to CME futures data, the average retracement magnitude during a bull market is 37%, with a duration of 17 days. It is advisable to initiate a pyramid accumulation strategy at a 25% retracement (decreasing position size by 5% each time).
【Practical Toolbox】
• Trend Tracking: TradingView Multi-Timeframe Analysis
• On-Chain Monitoring: Glassnode Institutional Fund Flow
• Sentiment Quantification: LunarCrush Multi-Dimensional Sentiment Index
