My lovely people, what's up! Here is your favorite news from the crypto world. Be alert with this! 🚨 Those who have held Bitcoin (BTC) for a long time, whom we call the 'long-term holders', are in a very particular situation!

Imagine that, according to Darkfost, an analyst from CryptoQuant, these people are accumulating profits that they haven't cashed out yet, and this was last seen in October 2024, when the market took a downturn! Right now, those who bought Bitcoin and have held onto it are seeing an average profit of 220%! 🤑 Yes, 220%! But although it sounds like a lot of money, this is surprisingly low when we think that Bitcoin has been rising and has already surpassed $107,000. What a crazy thing!

Why are profits not as high as before if Bitcoin is flying? 🚀

To understand this, Darkfost used something called the MVRV ratio. Don't be scared by the name! It's a way to measure the market value compared to what long-term buyers paid.

It turns out that in March 2024, when Bitcoin reached $74,500, the MVRV was at 300%. A crazy profit! And in December 2024, when Bitcoin hit $108,000, it rose to 350%. But guess what? Now, with that 220% profit, it means that many of these 'long-term holders' bought their Bitcoin when the price was much higher in this cycle! It's like they arrived at the party a bit late. 😅

What needs to happen for profits to get back to where they were before? 📈

According to calculations, if the average cost of Bitcoin for these people is $33,800, for them to see that 300% profit again, Bitcoin would have to reach $135,200! Not much! And if they want to reach 357%, the price would have to rise to $154,400!

This aligns with what we see in the market: people tend to sell when the profits are round and juicy. So, for people to start cashing out their profits like before, Bitcoin needs to continue its upward path! ⬆️

Keep an eye on the past to see the future! 👀

If we start to remember, things change. For example, in December 2017, when Bitcoin reached $19,500, long-term holders had unrealized profits of 4,000%! A lot of money! Then, in the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin surged to $63,000 in April 2021 and the MVRV rose to 1,230%.

By November 2021, although prices reached about $68,400, unrealized profits had already dropped to 340%. Do you see how things change?

An analyst who knows a lot had said that the peak of this cycle could be at $135,000 in October 2024. But with new data from May 2025, they adjusted the target to a range between $120,000 and $150,000! And they suggest that the most likely peak will be between August and September 2025. Mark that date, folks!

Is there room for it to keep rising, but with caution? ⚠️

Right now, Bitcoin is around $106,750, with not much change in the last 24 hours. The fact that profits are not as exaggerated as before means that fewer long-term Bitcoin holders are eager to sell. This could give more momentum to the price to keep rising. That's good! 👍

But, be careful! The on-chain numbers are not everything. There are other things that can move the market: what happens with Bitcoin ETFs, market flows, or even changes in the global economy. All of that can make things change direction quickly!

For now, the signal is that the market is not 'overheated'. If Bitcoin follows the pattern of previous cycles, it may need to rise more before long-term holders start cashing in those big profits seen in March or December 2024. But, be alert! Always look at the metrics and also the signs from the real world to be prepared for what comes. Get your boots on, because this isn't over!$BTC