Altcoin Season, when alternative cryptocurrencies significantly outperform Bitcoin, has been on hold, largely due to Bitcoin's continued dominance in the market. High BTC dominance often signals that capital is concentrated in Bitcoin, leaving little room for altcoins to shine.
What Triggers an Altcoin Season? 🤔
Several key factors can shift investor attention from Bitcoin to altcoins:
A drop in Bitcoin dominance below key levels.
Technical breakouts in major alts, like ETH rising above key moving averages.
Growing interest in DeFi, NFTs, or AI-integrated Web3 projects.
Macroeconomic shocks (e.g., interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions) undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status.
On-chain activity surges or developer milestones that boost confidence in alt ecosystems.
When Will Altseason Begin in July 2025? 👇
To forecast altseason, traders should closely monitor the Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and the total altcoin market cap. A typical shift occurs when BTC.D peaks and begins to fall, while the altcoin market cap finds a bottom and starts rising. On a dual chart, this appears as a bottoming black line (alt market cap) and a declining pink line (BTC.D).
In July 2025, these signals seem to align between July 8 and July 12. The Altcoin Season Index crossed 75 on July 8, with 36 out of the top 50 altcoins gaining over 25% in the past 90 days. The total altcoin market cap found support at $1.05 trillion on July 5, rebounding by July 9, while BTC.D peaked at 65.8% on July 4 before dipping to 64% by July 10.
This window marks a potential entry point for traders. Capital rotation typically begins with high-cap altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, followed by strong performers in the layer-2 and DeFi sectors. Risk management is key—set stops near the previous alt market low and consider booking profits if the altcoin market cap exceeds $1.2 trillion.
Also, keep an eye on the ETH/BTC ratio. A break above 0.065 by July 7 would confirm the trend. However, if it falls below 0.062 by July 15, the rally may be a false start, not a true altseason.
Current Influences and Delays 💹
Multiple factors can shift market attention from Bitcoin to altcoins. A decline in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) below critical levels often triggers capital rotation into smaller-cap assets. Technical breakouts—like Ethereum sustaining moves above key moving averages—can attract fresh liquidity into sectors such as DeFi and NFTs.
Meanwhile, macro events like unexpected rate hikes or geopolitical tensions can weaken Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, prompting investors to seek higher returns in riskier altcoins. When combined with rising on-chain activity, these catalysts can fuel a self-sustaining altcoin rally.
