When we talk about cryptocurrencies, it is like an existence filled with controversy and mystery; the contradiction between its investment attributes and monetary attributes is like the two ends of a scale, always difficult to balance.
Monetary Attributes: Value Volatility as a 'Roadblock'
From the essence of money, an ideal medium of exchange should have stable value to ensure the smooth operation of economic activities. However, the value of cryptocurrencies fluctuates like a roller coaster, frequently and with great amplitude. Taking Bitcoin as an example, its price can soar from thousands of dollars to tens of thousands of dollars in a short time, or it can plummet rapidly during market panic. This extreme volatility makes it difficult for cryptocurrencies to take on the role of stable trading mediums.
Many people, when hyping cryptocurrencies, often loudly declare their optimism about its monetary attributes, firmly believing that cryptocurrencies represent the future of money. However, reality is harsh; their actual actions reveal their true intentions—trading cryptocurrencies as financial speculative products. If the value of cryptocurrencies could maintain stability in the long term, without such large fluctuations, would these speculators still be willing to hold on for the long term? The answer is likely no. After all, for speculators, only price volatility can bring profit opportunities. Moreover, a truly stable digital currency must have authoritative institutions backing its value, just as fiat currency has national credit as support. However, at present, the cryptocurrency field lacks such authoritative endorsements, which further limits its monetary attributes.
Investment Attributes: A 'House of Cards' Without Value Support
When we turn our attention to the investment attributes of cryptocurrencies, we find that they resemble a house of cards lacking actual support. Compared to traditional investment products like gold and diamonds, cryptocurrencies lack practical utility. Gold not only holds ornamental value but also has widespread applications in industries such as electronics and aerospace; diamonds, besides being jewelry, play important roles in industrial cutting. And cryptocurrencies? They are merely a string of digital codes based on cryptographic technology, with their value entirely reliant on market speculation.
Various new cryptocurrency projects are constantly emerging in the market, each claiming to have unique technologies and applications under the banner of innovation. However, in reality, many projects merely change the packaging without any substantive technological breakthroughs or commercial applications. Once the market hype fades, the prices of these cryptocurrencies can collapse rapidly, leaving investors with nothing. In such cases, investing in cryptocurrencies is like a high-risk gamble, with no certainty about when one might fall into the abyss.
Special Demand: A 'Haven' in Black and Gray Markets
Despite the numerous issues cryptocurrencies face regarding their monetary and investment attributes, they are not without their uses. In black market and gray market transactions, cryptocurrencies have unique advantages. Due to their anonymity and decentralized characteristics, both parties in a transaction can complete fund transfers without revealing their identities, making them ideal tools for black and gray market transactions. For example, in drug trafficking and cybercrime, cryptocurrencies are often used as a means of payment, facilitating these illegal activities. Therefore, to some extent, there is a strong demand for cryptocurrencies in certain fields.
Ponzi Scheme: The 'Wealth Game' of Speculators
Essentially, the cryptocurrency market resembles a massive Ponzi scheme. In this market, early investors attract later entrants to drive up prices and reap huge profits. Later entrants hope that more people will take over, allowing them to sell at high prices for profit. This game of passing the parcel will continue as long as market sentiment remains high.
It is undeniable that if one can buy and sell at the right moment, some people can indeed make a profit from the cryptocurrency market. But the question is, why can you be sure you won't be the one left holding the bag? In the cryptocurrency market, information asymmetry and market manipulation are common. Some large investors or institutions can manipulate market prices, inducing retail investors to follow suit, thus making huge profits. Ordinary investors, lacking professional knowledge and information channels, often become the victims of these schemes.
Extreme Scenario: A 'Lifeline' Under Monetary System Collapse?
In addition to the above situations, there is an extreme scenario where cryptocurrencies could shine, which is when a country's monetary system collapses. For instance, when a country faces serious issues like massive national debt that cannot be repaid and uncontrollable inflation, the value of its currency will significantly depreciate, and people's confidence in fiat currency will be virtually lost. In such situations, people will seek more stable assets to protect their wealth, and cryptocurrencies may become one of their choices.
However, such situations are extremely rare. Moreover, even in a scenario where a country's monetary system collapses, cryptocurrencies are not an absolutely safe haven. Because the cryptocurrency market itself also carries many risks, such as technical vulnerabilities and regulatory changes, all of which can lead to a sharp drop in cryptocurrency prices.
In summary, the future of cryptocurrencies is filled with uncertainty. The contradictions in their monetary and investment attributes, along with the lack of actual value support, limit their potential for long-term development. Although cryptocurrencies may play a certain role in some special fields and extreme situations, for ordinary investors, participating in cryptocurrency investment still requires caution and should not be blindly followed, to avoid falling into unnecessary risks.
