In today's market, every time a policy signal is released, the focus inevitably shifts to questioning the timing of interest rate cuts: "Will there be a cut in July?" "Will there be two cuts in September? Can there be three cuts by the end of the year?

This excessive focus on timing, however, obscures a more critical issue: the Federal Reserve's true stance on inflation. Previously, the "liberation day tariffs" sparked concerns about soaring inflation, delaying expectations for rate cuts; then, with the tariffs on hold and the CPI and PCE data showing no deterioration, optimism arose again, shouting that "the rate cuts can begin now." This is the current contradiction: inflation concerns have not dissipated, yet the market has already bet on easing.

Powell's remarks are quite candid: he is also uncertain. He is waiting for clearer data—waiting for inflation to truly achieve a soft landing, waiting for the labor market to effectively cool down.

Therefore, the core issue is not to speculate on "whether there will be a rate cut in July," but to closely monitor: inflation and employment data, when will they show substantial slowdown?