1.SOL price could drop significantly by 10%~20% even if the ETF is approved
– Although news about the SOL spot ETF being considered has caused both excitement and concern, analysts warn that the SOL price may undergo a strong correction, dropping around 20%. 2.Profit-taking pressure as soon as the ETF stirs – Strong recoveries before the official ETF launch often lead to the phenomenon of 'sell the news' – holders will sell to take profits, causing the price to drop significantly.
3.Technical analysis of reversal signals
– Technical indicators (MACD, SMA…) are showing an increasing downtrend. A break below a key support level (around $128) could trigger stronger selling.
4.On-chain technical data still supports long-term, but not enough for short-term impetus
– Network activity is increasing (transactions/day, TVL), but the number of new addresses and TVL tends to decrease or stagnate: TVL decreased by ~29% in June, new addresses stagnated compared to May (Will Solana's price drop below $140 despite ETF rumors? | CoinChapter on Binance Square)
5.SOL ETF approval speed
– Many organizations like VanEck, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares have submitted spot ETF applications in early 2025 (Assessing the progress of popular cryptocurrency ETF applications, which application is most likely to be approved? - BlockBeats)
– The SEC is expected to complete its review by mid or late 2025, possibly even in July (the beginning of the 'altcoin ETF summer') (The altcoin ETF summer may arrive in July after being approved by the U.S. SEC)