$BTC Pumped Above $100K – Bull Trap or Genuine Recovery

I believe Bitcoin’$BTC s surge above $100,000 happened after it cleared liquidity on the lower side – a classic liquidity sweep. But now the market is at a crossroads, and I see two main possibilities:

1. 📉 A Bull Trap in Play

This rally could be nothing more than a bull trap designed to lure in eager long positions before another leg downward. It's a pattern we've seen before:

Technical analysts flagged a similar scenario in June, when BTC rallied to ~$110K only to reverse sharply amid rising geopolitical tensions .

Fractal setups from prior rallies—where price fails to make a higher high and RSI rejects—suggest the recent move might mirror past traps .

Liquidity analysis shows large clusters of orders just above $100K, likely placed to snare over-leveraged buyers .

2. 🛡️ Genuine Recovery from Macro Shocks

There's also a case for a real bounce:

BTC climbed from ~$100.5K to around $110.6K in a week—what some called a “routine 3.5% pullback” after a 10% rally .

Exchange balances are shrinking (e.g., Binance lost 28K BTC$BTC in a week), pointing to true accumulation and potential supply squeezes .

Spot ETF inflows remain strong, with billions still entering institutional vehicles, signaling sustained long-term demand .

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So What Now?

🔄 Market Ambiguity Prevails

Right now, there’s no clear leader in direction—just choppy price action that could easily flip on any news. Expect whipsaws and liquidity hunts. This setup typically sees:

Fakeouts above $100K to trap bulls, followed by a retrace.

Final bullish break only after stabilizing above key levels like $108K or $110K.

💡 My Strategy

Position Type Plan

Leverage/Futures Keep position sizes small—high risk of stop hunts.

Spot Accumulate gradually on dips ($95–$100K), aligning with a long-term view.

Watchlist Key levels: $108K (breakout) and $90–95K (trap zones). Watch macro news—war, ETFs, recession cues.

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Final Take

This isn't a moment to chase the rally—or deny its risk. Rather, it's a time to stay alert,

stay strategic. Use small positions, scale into spot, and don’t let liquidity traps fool you. Watch how BTC reacts to upcoming news—true direction will reveal itself soon.