Trump's recent tweets have directly targeted Musk and his industrial landscape, meaningfully throwing out the statement 'let Dogecoin think about this issue' while criticizing electric vehicle subsidy policies. This statement again highlights the close linkage between political power and the cryptocurrency market, revealing DOGE's special position as a 'Musk concept coin'. In the context of Musk stepping down from the government efficiency department and returning to Tesla, holders are facing a new phase marked by increased volatility but hidden opportunities.
I. The cost of political gambling: Musk's turn and the opportunity for DOGE's 'depoliticization'.
Musk's political adventure and commercial backlash:
Musk donated 288 million USD to Trump in 2024 and took on the role of head of government efficiency, directly causing damage to Tesla's brand image—European sales plummeted by 76%, and market value evaporated by 700 billion USD. As he announced in May 2025 to 'significantly reduce political activities and focus on Tesla', the market began to anticipate his attention returning to technology and cryptocurrency, providing an opportunity for DOGE to shed its 'political symbol' label.
The double-edged sword effect of Trump's policies on DOGE:
On one hand, Trump supports cryptocurrencies, while on the other, he implements a 25% tariff on auto imports, impacting Tesla and dragging DOGE down. His tweets hint at 'government spending savings' linked to DOGE's departmental goals, but the claimed 55 billion USD savings is revealed by audits to be 80% derived from short-term means like layoffs, leaving the actual reform effectiveness in doubt.
Deep-seated contradictions: DOGE's 'America First' policy fundamentally conflicts with the global supply chain on which Tesla relies. If political games continue, DOGE's price may be repeatedly disturbed by policy noise.
II. Technical dawn: 0.15 USD becomes the lifeline, building momentum to impact the 1 USD mark.
The current DOGE price is oscillating around the key range of 0.15-0.17 USD, presenting a typical 'descending triangle' pattern, which is accumulating breakthrough energy:
Support resilience: 0.15 USD has both technical structure and psychological support attributes, having touched bottom three times without breaking (the most recent being June 2025), indicating strong buyer support.
Breakthrough signal: If it successfully stabilizes above 0.17 USD, combined with the 'TD sequence' buy signal, the short-term target looks at 0.21 USD (+30%); if it breaks through 0.23 USD with volume, it opens the mid-term channel towards 0.39-1 USD.
Historical cycles suggest a super cycle: Analyst Trader Tardigrade points out that the current pattern is highly similar to early 2024 (0.093→0.48 USD) and before the 2017 bull market. If the trend is replicated, the theoretical target points to 1.09 USD (up 500% from the current price), and in extreme scenarios, it may even challenge 4 USD.
III. Core catalyst: ETF approval and Musk's return to the crypto stage.
The probability of ETF approval surging has become the biggest variable:
In 2025, the Trump administration promotes cryptocurrency regulatory easing, with the probability of DOGE spot ETF approval jumping from 27% at the beginning of the year to 74%. If successfully realized:
Short-term attraction of 4 billion USD level capital inflow, pushing the price to 2.2 USD;
Long-term or triggering institutional FOMO sentiment, boosting market value to impact 700 billion USD.
Potential stimulus from Musk's movements:
As he steps back from politics, market attention shifts back to Tesla's technological breakthroughs and the expansion of cryptocurrency payment scenarios. If Twitter integrates DOGE payments or Starlink is listed, it may ignite market enthusiasm.
IV. Risk warning: Three major gray rhinos cannot be ignored.
Regulatory reversal risk: The SEC takes a cautious stance on 'meme coins', if the ETF application is rejected, DOGE may plummet below the strong support of 0.13 USD;
Liquidity manipulation concerns: The top 10 addresses control 44% of the circulating supply, whale sell-offs can easily trigger flash crashes;
Trump's policy reversals: If automotive tariffs and other trade protection measures escalate, it may transmit selling pressure on DOGE through Tesla's channels.
V. Retail strategy: small position betting, with an emphasis on segments.
Based on political relevance, technical momentum, and ETF event-driven factors, it is recommended to adopt the following layered strategy:
Short-term (1-3 months):
Focus on defending 0.15 USD and breaking through 0.17 USD. If it rises above 0.17 USD with volume, it can increase the position, targeting 0.21-0.23 USD; if it drops below 0.15 USD and doesn't recover for three days, stop-loss and wait.
Mid-term (ETF decision window):
Allocate no more than 10% of the position, betting on a 74% probability of ETF approval. If approved, hold until 1-1.5 USD for phased profit-taking; if rejected, decisively stop-loss and exit.
Long-term (after the end of 2025):
Only maintain a 'faith position' of less than 5%, betting on Musk's ecological integration or DOGE's technological upgrades (such as Layer 2, PoS transition). Target anchored at 1-4 USD, but need to accept the risk of going to zero.
Key reminder: DOGE is still a highly volatile asset, not a safe haven choice. Investors need to strictly follow the principle of 'non-critical fund investment', avoid leveraged operations, and prioritize monitoring macro directional signals of benchmark cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
When memes become weapons, DOGE stands at a historical crossroads.
'The ultimate paradox of Dogecoin is: it is both a symbol of grassroots celebration and a pawn in capital games. When Trump uses the DOGE label to target Musk's electric vehicle dominance, and when a 74% ETF probability faces off against a 44% whale control—this war has long transcended cryptocurrency itself, becoming an arena of old power versus new belief. Holding DOGE is not just holding code, but holding an option against an absurd world: betting that it will ultimately bow to humor and resistance.'
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