Key Points:
The stablecoin inflow pattern is similar to levels seen after the LUNA and FTX collapses, indicating the potential for new accumulation and a breakout rally.
Bitcoin remains above $100,000, but new user activity is still low, indicating a 'HODL' phase where holders are waiting for new demand to push prices higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of a strong rebound, but the price chart has not yet attracted attention. On-chain data shows a 'demand generation' pattern similar to
the accumulation phase after the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapses, both of which marked the significant cycle bottom.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. states that the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dropped into negative territory, forming the same 'blue zone' as in 2022. This indicates that participants are not yet ready to sell, suggesting a return of meaningful demand in the context of suppressed volatility. Adler states:
"If the inflow remains at or above the levels seen after LUNA and FTX, it will strongly indicate the start of the next Bitcoin rebound."
Bitcoin network activity signals show HODL dominance.
The BTC price is performing strongly above $100,000, but the new UTXO 30-day simple moving average (SMA)—a proxy for new network activity—remains close to 570,000. This is about 40% lower than the activity level when BTC was trading between $60,000 and $70,000, far below the range of 850,000 to 1,000,000 that supports the 2024 bull market.
This divergence suggests that long-term holders are locking up tokens rather than moving them, creating a supply-constrained scenario, which could lead to a rapid price increase if new demand emerges. A new UTXO metric breaking above 700,000 would indicate that new participants are entering. If it rises above 850,000, it could confirm the beginning of a broad retail and institutional-driven bull market phase.
Exchange traffic multiples support this setup, tracking short-term to long-term BTC inflows, which have fallen into areas historically marking seller exhaustion phases, where reduced seller liquidity triggers upward price momentum.
Meanwhile, whales seem to be mobilizing. Large transactions currently account for 96% of all exchange traffic, a level historically associated with major price expansions. These entities may be positioning tokens for strategic redistribution, typically synchronized with price surges.
The risks for BTC in demand-supply imbalance persist.
Despite these bullish structural signals, short-term risks remain. The 30-day apparent demand indicator has turned negative for the first time in two months, indicating that new buyer demand is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders (LTH). This imbalance increases the risk of a recent price pullback.
In this mixed environment characterized by HODL, seller exhaustion, and early whale activity, Bitcoin's next move depends on whether new demand can exceed remaining sell-offs. If momentum stagnates near the key resistance level of $110,000, a short-term pullback may precede a broader upward trend.
$BTC$ETH#币安Alpha上新
