Today's SOL performs a "roller coaster" market:
In the morning, it surged to $159 due to the positive news of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF launching tomorrow, but quickly retreated to close at $149.28. The market was dominated by bears throughout the day, with an amplitude of 0.9% but an actual decline of 0.77%. This structure of rising and then falling is clear in my judgment: the market's expectations for the ETF have already been priced in, but the bullish momentum is insufficient, and caution is needed against short-term profit-taking pressure.
1. The technical critical point for bulls and bears has emerged
The key level battle is heating up: the current price is firmly stuck below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD bearish crossover and green bars expanding to -0.86, indicating明显弱势. However, the lower levels of 148.8 and 146.65 form a double insurance—if it tests the bottom three times without breaking, it will trigger a counterattack! Meanwhile, a strong breakthrough above 151.3 is needed to reverse the downward trend, targeting the pressure zone of 158-160.
Concerns about trading volume cannot be ignored: the 4-hour chart shows a rebound with reduced volume and increased volume on the decline, indicating insufficient buying interest. This contradicts the positive news from the ETF; my opinion is: if the ETF does not significantly break through 153 after its launch tomorrow, we need to be wary of the risk of "buying the expectation and selling the fact".
2. Tomorrow's ETF will be the decisive factor for bulls and bears
The $SSK launched by REX Shares on July 2 is the only highlight today. However, interestingly, institutions seem to be waiting and observing—there are no unusual large on-chain transfers, and the derivatives' open contracts show stable fluctuations. This suggests that the real direction choice may explode after the ETF trading starts! If institutional funds enter through this channel, the 160 level will be easily broken; conversely, if the performance is flat, a correction may deepen into the 140 area.
