In recent months, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows, but this has not led to sustained new highs in Bitcoin prices. After reaching 112,000 USD, rebounds have been weaker each time, as if Bitcoin is being suppressed. Market liquidity is insufficient, and the anticipated interest rate cuts have not yet arrived. There are currently no new highlights in the market, which mainly revolves around reserves and ETFs, with top global capital also joining in, indicating a potential ceiling; new growth points are needed.
Bitcoin: Rising wedge's end, short-term rebound possible. Bitcoin's current small-scale trend is still within a rising wedge structure, and it is nearing the support line at the lower edge around 106500. Although the market dipped last night, there was no significant acceleration in the decline.
From a structural perspective, the current decline can be seen as an A-wave adjustment, and a B-wave rebound may come in the short term. Therefore, I tend to position for a short-long in the 107000-106500 range, aiming for the resistance around 108300-108600, and will consider shorting again after the rebound ends.
Additionally, according to the liquidation chart analysis, a large number of leveraged short stop-loss positions are clustered below 106500, which will likely be 'swept' before rebounding, so the operational logic remains 'long first, then short.'
Ethereum: Consolidating triangle, focus on 2470 support.
Ethereum is currently still operating within a small range around 2500, with a small-scale structure forming a consolidating triangle. If the pattern is valid, it is expected to retest the support level around 2470 USD and then attempt an upward breakthrough.
Therefore, it is recommended to try a light long position near 2470. If a successful rebound occurs, consider reversing to short in the 2530-2550 range. The rhythm should still focus on high selling and low buying around the range, primarily making short-term swings.
SOL: With the ETF listing imminent, is it 'good news priced in' or a 'mid-term starting point'?
Tomorrow, the first Solana spot ETF will be listed in the US and will have staking functions, undoubtedly injecting a new fundamental driver into SOL.
However, from last night's reaction, the market did not experience a significant rise, indicating that the news has been priced in. In the short term, it is highly likely to face a 'sell the news' effect, and caution is needed for profit-taking adjustments on the day or the next day after the ETF listing.
In the medium term, the valuation logic and growth potential of SOL are far superior to other altcoins. As a 'Dragon 3' public chain, its TVL, activity, market capitalization structure, and developer ecosystem all have strong competitiveness. In the context of Ethereum facing scalability and Gas bottlenecks, SOL is the most likely competitor to become the 'Dragon 2' public chain.
For traditional institutions, SOL ETF is the altcoin ETF with the most allocation value. If a structural pullback occurs later, it will be a good opportunity for medium-term positioning.
Summary: The positive effects of the ETF are entering the digestion phase, and the market awaits a new main narrative.
The market is currently in a 'vacuum period' with no new capital inflows, no new main narrative, and no confirmation of macro shifts. Short-term trends are mainly characterized by structural fluctuations, with mainstream cryptocurrencies stuck in high-level consolidation.
Operational advice:
BTC: Short-long for a rebound, target 108300-108600, then short after the rebound ends.
ETH: Low long and high short, high selling and low buying in the range of 2470-2550.
SOL: Be cautious of a pullback on the day of the ETF listing; if it stabilizes, it could become a medium-term target.
At the current stage, profits come more from structural judgment and rhythm control, rather than heavy bets. Controlling positions and rhythm will be the core of operations in the near future.