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#大饼 Consolidation vs altcoin rotation starting
- BTC: Continuing high-level volatility, $108,000 is a critical battleground for bulls and bears, weekend liquidity is low, beware of false breakouts;
- SOL/BNB: SOL holds steady at $151 support level, technical signs indicate a cup and handle breakout, target range $160-172; BNB benefits from the expansion of platform token ecosystem, recovery momentum strengthens;
- ETH: Currently reported at $2519 (CME futures data), strong selling pressure exists at $2500-2520, three tests near $2490 formed a bullish pin bar, short-term direction awaits breakout confirmation.
💡 Policy and market catalyst events
1. Countdown to stablecoin legislation
US Treasury Secretary reveals that a bill may be introduced in mid-July, directly benefiting DeFi protocols like UNI, MKR, AAVE, and clearer regulations will encourage institutional funds to enter;
2. Trump pressures the Federal Reserve
Openly criticizes Powell for 'slow rate cuts', hints at possible leadership change. The market bets on a 93% chance of rate cuts before September (CME FedWatch), if three rate cuts happen, BTC could surge to $150,000;
3. Accelerated capital layout in mining
Trump's son's company raised **$220 million** to turn towards Bitcoin mining, upgrading from 'buying coins' to 'producing coins', sending long-term bullish signals;
4. The 'Big and Beautiful' bill impacts US dollar credit
If passed, it will surge the deficit by $5 trillion, Musk threatens to form a new political party. With foreign investment in US bonds decreasing, BTC may become an alternative safe-haven asset.
🚨 On-chain and fund movement
- Exchanges continue to bleed: Since May, net outflow of over 100,000 BTC from exchanges, significant signs of whales accumulating (led by Coinbase);
- Ethereum futures premium: CME Ethereum main contract up 2.75% in one day, but spot remains pressured, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears.
⏰ Short-term operational strategy
ETH short opportunity: Technical pressure near 2490, combined with long upper shadow and reduced volume rebound signals on the 4-hour chart, can attempt a light short (specific entry/stop-loss points please 👉 follow real-time updates from Haitang).
Key turning catalyst:
Thursday (July 3) at 20:30 US non-farm payroll data (expected increase of 116,000 vs previous value of 139,000);
Progress on Trump’s tariff negotiations (July 9 deadline approaching).
July Declaration: Policy window + technical breakthroughs in the making, patience in holding positions is key to capturing the main upward wave!
Take action now: Follow → Receive strategies → Jump in and profit!
Position disclosure: $BTC $HFT $SOL (dynamically adjusting)