Could the way European leaders treated Trump at the recent NATO summit hint at their expectations for his political future?

Possibly — but not in the way it might seem at first glance.

European heads of state are seasoned political operators. Trump, by contrast, is seen by many of them as a political outsider with little conventional skill. That dynamic shapes how they engage with him: not with admiration, but with calculated flattery.

They understand his need for validation and play to his ego — not out of genuine respect, but as a tactic. The aim isn’t long-term alignment; it’s short-term diplomacy. Europe, especially now, is becoming more aware of its over-dependence on the U.S. after decades of strategic reliance. As it slowly redefines its own defense and geopolitical role, it wants to keep the U.S. close — at least for now — without overcommitting.

Trump is easier to handle than some of the other strongman leaders on the global stage — like Putin, Netanyahu, or Kim Jong Un — because of his predictability and his craving for approval. That makes him less dangerous in certain diplomatic settings, and more easily manipulated by those who understand the game.

In short, Europe’s treatment of Trump is less about honoring a future leader and more about managing a volatile personality in a complex moment.

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