June 30 - July 4 Macroeconomic Events:
Preface:
This week welcomes the employment data week, with the market betting on a rate cut in September, but currently, July still has a 20% probability of a rate cut, and the only thing that can push forward the rate cut is the employment data, so this week's employment data will be under market scrutiny.
This employment data belongs to a 'somber event celebrated' scenario; the worse the data, the more it can stimulate the possibility of a rate cut in July. Of course, if the data is stable, it would essentially extinguish the last glimmer of possibility for a rate cut in July.
At the same time, it should be noted that July 4 is Independence Day (US), and the financial market will be closed, meaning there are only 4 normal trading days this week; also, US stocks will have a short three-day holiday.
Main Text:
Tuesday, July 1
21:45 June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (US)
22:00 June ISM Manufacturing PMI (US)
22:00 May JOLTs Job Openings (10,000) (US)
Assessment:
Only focus on the June ISM Manufacturing PMI and job vacancy data; after comparison, the latter is more important. Given the current economic situation, US manufacturing data is unlikely to return above 50 in the short term, so data fluctuations are largely negligible.
The number of job vacancies as a leading indicator of employment data remains unchanged in thought; it is a somber event celebrated; the worse the data, the more favorable it is for a rate cut in July. The specific effects depend on the actual published data.
Wednesday, July 2
20:15 June ADP Employment Change (10,000) (US)
Assessment:
Similar to Tuesday's job vacancies, the worse the data, the more favorable it is. Of course, the small non-farm data has a weaker impact on actual employment data since it has been out of sync with the large non-farm data for a long time.
Thursday, July 3
20:30 Employment data, including unemployment rate and non-farm employment data
22:00 June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (US)
Assessment:
The latter can be ignored; focus on the employment data, consistent with the beginning of this article, it's a somber event celebrated, but it should be noted that according to the current expected data, a 0.1 percentage point rise in unemployment and a decline in employment numbers would only slightly increase the probability of a rate cut in July.
Only a significant rise in unemployment would greatly stimulate the possibility of a rate cut in July.
Uncertainty Event:
1. Trump's comprehensive package policy bill (Great Beautiful Bill) is basically certain to pass.
2. Entering July, tariffs become the theme; over the weekend, Canada jumped against the US, which may suggest that the tariff negotiations in July may not be so smooth, although the US side holds an optimistic attitude.
3. The stablecoin bill (Genius Act) originally planned to be expedited before July 4 is likely difficult to pass this week, as there are only 4 days of trading; if it cannot pass, the pace may slow down.
Summary:
Overall, while this week's employment data is a key focus, it seems difficult to bring forward rate cuts again, and a rate cut in September has become increasingly certain. The remaining aspect is how US and global tariff trade will 'perform'.
