Options and on-chain data point to increased volatility amid possible changes in macroeconomic policy.
Bitcoin starts the new week trading at $107,493, recording a decline of 0.6% this Monday (30). In reais, the BTC quotation is around R$ 593,722.
During the weekend, Bitcoin remained close to $108,000 as traders prepared for a decisive week of global macroeconomic events, highlighted by the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual monetary policy forum in Sintra and the participation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
Despite price action remaining contained, signals from derivatives markets and on-chain activity indicate that volatility may be about to return. Traders are on the lookout for possible changes in central bank rhetoric, which could influence risk appetite in both cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
“Whales are aggressively moving large volumes to centralized exchanges,” said Axel Adler Jr., an independent on-chain analyst and frequent contributor to CryptoQuant.
Adler notes that this pattern, combined with the decline in exchange reserves and the weakening of stablecoin inflows, typically precedes periods of high volatility.
“As long as Bitcoin holds $108,000, the base scenario is an upward movement, with targets at $112,000,” he wrote in his newsletter Adler’s Insights on Sunday (29).
The context is one of expectation regarding Powell's speech, which is expected to reiterate the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates, citing the need for greater clarity on inflation and the labor market before initiating any easing.
The ECB Forum, themed “Adapting to Change,” will feature Powell alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and other central bankers, who will discuss how monetary policy is evolving in a fragile economic environment.
Even before Sintra, derivatives traders had already begun positioning themselves around the potential increase in volatility.
On Saturday, Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Finance, highlighted $806,000 in recent trading volume of perpetual contracts for synthetic volatility indices of Ethereum and Bitcoin on gTrade. The sharp increase suggests growing demand for directional volatility exposure as the market awaits signals of monetary policy.
Activity in Bitcoin options reflects this caution.
“About 20% of the open interest in Derive is concentrated in bearish put options,” said Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, to Decrypt, highlighting positions with strike prices at $85,000, $100,000, and $106,000. “Bitcoin traders are preparing for macroeconomic uncertainties or profit-taking after the rally.”
In other words, the options market indicates that Bitcoin traders are cautious, protecting themselves against risks tied to the macroeconomic scenario by focusing on lower-priced put options.
Ethereum markets, on the other hand, show a more optimistic trend, with increased activity in call options at the $2,900 and $3,200 levels, according to Forster.
“This positioning seems to be driven by expectations around ETHCC in Cannes — an important event historically associated with product announcements and ecosystem growth,” added Forster. “Traders are clearly waiting for catalysts that could drive the upward movement.”