6.30 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Hello brothers, last week's analysis mainly told everyone that the big events are coming, do not hold empty positions, and primarily hold BTC!

Analyzed from 4 aspects:

(1) The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine has been reached, and there are not many major conflicts and wars in the world recently. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has formed a norm and cannot temporarily stir up new waves.

(2) Signs of cooling inflation are gradually emerging. After the initial spike in oil prices due to the conflict, there has been a significant decline. After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, crude oil futures were quickly sold off, with a drop of over 10% this week. The U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index has fallen for two consecutive months.

(3) Expectations for interest rate cuts are growing. Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials show that some members support a rate cut timeline earlier than market expectations. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that a rate cut should be considered next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also hinted that if tariffs do not exacerbate inflation, a rate cut is possible. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said this week that if inflation is under control, a rate cut will be initiated. The market expects the Federal Reserve may cut rates 2-3 more times before the end of the year, but it is very likely to remain unchanged at the July meeting.

(4) Exchange BTC reserves have dropped to a new low, with more than 5,000 BTC flowing out of exchanges last week. Retail investors have almost sold out, and the accumulation phase for whales is nearing its end.

Although there was some increase on Monday, it does not count as a rise and is currently not stable. We need to wait for this Thursday's non-farm payroll data and the details of Trump's tariff negotiations to see the real big market changes. Currently, we remain patient and await a turning point in the market.

The analysis is for reference only; adults should take responsibility for their own decisions.

Investment carries risks; please invest with spare funds and think independently.