Solana DEX volume surpassed Ethereum — Will SOL price follow?

Solana Surpassed Ethereum in DEX Volume, But Hyperliquid's Rise Shadows SOL's Recovery

Despite Solana surpassing Ethereum in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume, overall network activity is still significantly below January levels. This is one of the main factors that will overshadow the expected recovery in Solana's price.

Solana's native token SOL lost approximately 15% of its value when it couldn't regain the critical $168 level on June 12. This drop occurred in parallel with a decrease in trading volume on the network and weakened interest in memecoin projects.

Emerging in DEX Volume, But Activity is Low

According to DefiLlama data, Solana's DEX volume in the last 30 days reached $64.1 billion, surpassing Ethereum's $61.4 billion volume. In contrast, BNB Chain continues to lead with $159.6 billion. While Solana increased its market share in June, the main platforms contributing to this growth were Raydium ($19.1 billion), Pump.fun ($14.2 billion), and Orca ($13.9 billion). Still, DEX activity in Solana is 91% below January levels.

The Sharp Decline in Memecoins Has Doused Excitement

Interest in memecoin projects is declining; most tokens have lost 25% or more in value over the last 16 days. Giga decreased by 42%, Popcat by 35%, Fartcoin and PNUT by 31%, and Bonk and WIF by 25%. These sharp losses have overshadowed expectations regarding Solana's increasing DEX market share.

Hyperliquid's Rise Weakens Investor Confidence in SOL

Another concern in the Solana ecosystem is the rise of Hyperliquid, which is frequently highlighted in perpetual futures. According to DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid's 30-day trading volume is over 84% of the total volume of its five largest competitors. This situation reduces interest in independent DApps on Solana and BNB Chain, as well as Ethereum’s second-layer networks.

Some observers speculate that projects like Hyperliquid may launch their own independent blockchains. This creates uncertainty, especially for significant DApps like Pump.fun based on Solana, and weakens Solana's claim to leadership.

Lack of Optimism in Derivative Markets

Under normal market conditions, perpetual futures show a positive funding rate of 5-12% annually for long positions. However, according to the last 30 days of data, no permanent optimism signal is observed in SOL derivatives. This indicates that investors are cautious in the short term.

Hope for SOL: Upcoming Spot ETF Approval

The most important catalyst for the recovery in SOL prices may be the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) announcement of the Solana spot ETF decision in October. Before this decision, investors are relying on Solana's technical advantages and the network's strong infrastructure.

According to Davo from Drift Protocol, Solana's solid fundamental layer provides an 'asset availability' advantage that allows tokens to be used as collateral. Also, the lack of an off-chain matching engine that protects DEX users from transaction priority or ranking is among the highlighted features.

Conclusion: $180 Level is Possible, But Risks Persist

The Solana ecosystem, overshadowed by memecoins and token launches, still holds potential with its wide range of use cases. Although competitors like Hyperliquid are strong, other new blockchain projects like Berachain have yet to reach meaningful deposit levels.

Thanks to low transaction fees and high scalability, it seems possible for SOL to reach the $180 level even before the ETF decision is awaited. However, for this target to be realized, improving market conditions and investor confidence will be critical.

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