The Expected Third Decline in Gold and Silver Has Begun

The third wave decline that we have anticipated in the gold and silver market has begun. Especially, the movement on the gold side is noteworthy. Gold, which reached the level of 3,450 dollars two weeks ago, declined to 3,255 dollars on Friday, experiencing a loss of 195 dollars. It closed the week at the level of 3,274 dollars.

I congratulate those who have patiently waited without panicking in the Iran-Israel tension. So, will this decline continue until the end of the year? I have no change in my opinion: Yes, the downtrend may continue. However, for more cautious investors, I find it appropriate to buy 50% at the $3,215 level and to buy the remaining 50% at $3,000 and below in case of a pullback.

Such decisions are directly related to the investor's patience and psychological resilience. I would like to remind you of my warning in April that 'gold will keep waiting for months.' Since April 23, gold has not tested the $3,500 level again. It seems that investors will need to be a little more patient.

For those saying, 'If a war breaks out, gold will be $4,000' or 'If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold will soar,' the situation has not been that way. I foresee that the pressure on gold prices will continue until 2026. However, the $4,250 level may be on the table for 2026.

Gram Gold: Has the Decline Ended?

Despite my expectation of a decline in gold, gram gold is not considered at its low levels due to the dollar/TL exchange rate. I expect a recovery again after the third wave of decline. Gram gold, which saw the level of 4,433 TL two weeks ago, fell to 4,205 TL on Friday.

I had previously stated that a 50% purchase should be made from the level of 4,212 TL. For the remaining 50%, the band of 4,150–4,200 TL may be suitable. After purchases from these levels, the first target will be 4,500 TL.

With this last decline, there may have been a 'third and final dive' in gram gold as well.

So What Could Happen Next?

It is likely that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and make two more cuts by the end of the year, and five cuts in 2026.

The resurgence of geopolitical risks is expected to come back to the agenda, especially as of September.

The central banks' (including the US and Switzerland) demand to reclaim their gold reserves may increase the demand for gold.

These developments may once again provide upward support for gold prices.

It is quite striking that some analysis firms that said in April, 'gold will see $4,000 in 2025' are now saying 'we expect a 20% decline.' In short, investors who made a 50% purchase last Friday should not delay the remaining purchase opportunity too much.

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