1. Background: Top NFT IP 'endorsement', but slow progress in implementation

PENGU is the token issued by the top NFT project on the Solana chain, Pudgy Penguins (also tradable on Ethereum). Originally, the NFT attracted a lot of fans with 'emoticon penguins', and now they want to integrate 'NFT + tokens + ecosystem':

  • Token usage: They say they will engage in community governance, activity rewards, and want to connect their toy mall and blockchain games... Sounds comprehensive, but! There is currently no clear timeline for implementation. For example, the advertised blockchain games and cross-chain functions have no code on GitHub, and the mall and token interactions are still in 'early testing', belonging to the 'pie-in-the-sky stage'.

  • Chip distribution: Total supply of 88.88 billion tokens, 25.9% airdropped to NFT holders, and the team and institutions took quite a bit. But the on-chain data is frightening— the top 10 addresses hold over 60% of the tokens, and recently three large holders transferred 30 million tokens to exchanges, signaling a potential 'dump', making it easy for novices to get cut!

2. Popularity: NFT sentiment + speculation, real demand is weak

PENGU can be popular, partly relying on the 'emotional traffic' of the NFT IP and partly on speculation in the crypto circle:

  • Launch explosion: When airdropped last December, over 100,000 people rushed, with a market cap peaking at 2.1 billion. Major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase also gave it face to list. But essentially it is 'emotion-driven', with KOLs shouting orders, which is not significantly related to 'real-world applications'.

  • Current popularity: Looking at recent data, on June 29, the trading volume was 388 million, which increased significantly compared to before (for example, 79.03 million on June 23), but the daily active addresses were only around 8000, indicating that most are 'speculative funds' rotating back and forth, with very few real users.

3. Trend: Short-term sharp rises and falls, long-term view on implementation

Looking at the K-line and data, PENGU is the 'gamble on heartbeat' market:

  • June 26 - June 29 fluctuations: From June 26 at 0.009961, it surged to 0.014406 on June 29 (peaking at 0.015395), with trading volume spiking from 110 million to 388 million, a typical 'speculative rally'. However, such a 'sharp rise without actual good news' will inevitably lead to a dump.

  • Risk signals: RSI (Relative Strength Index) is nearing overbought territory, with a market cap of 872 million significantly inflated compared to similar projects (like Milady). Moreover, the NFT market itself is in a correction, and the trading volume of Pudgy Penguins' NFTs has shrunk by 70%, failing to support the high valuation, which could crash at any time.


Summary: PENGU relies on NFT IP for popularity, but with concentrated chips, slow implementation, and inflated valuation, it is a 'speculative game' in the short term. Long-term depends on whether the team can turn the vision into reality. When playing this coin, be sure to keep a close eye on large holders' movements and implementation progress, and don’t be fooled by the 'penguin emoticons' into buying in!
#pengu #加密货币分析 #nft