Bitcoin has recently surged past $100,000 after clearing lower-side liquidity, a term that refers to the market absorbing selling pressure at lower price levels. This movement has left traders wondering about the cryptocurrency’s next direction. Two scenarios are on the table: **a bull trap** designed to lure in buyers before a drop, or **a recovery** from the economic fallout of recent global conflicts, such as war. Based on current market behavior, the bull trap seems more likely—but nothing is certain yet. Here’s what’s happening and how to navigate it.

What’s Going On?

After breaking through $100K, Bitcoin’s price action has raised eyebrows. The “clearing of lower-side liquidity” suggests that sell orders at lower levels have been absorbed, potentially paving the way for a move upward. However, the market isn’t giving clear signals just yet. Instead, it’s likely to produce **fake movements**—sudden pumps or dumps that trick traders into making hasty decisions. A major news event, whether positive or negative, could finally set the course, but until then, uncertainty reigns.

Scenario 1: The Bull Trap

A **bull trap** is a deceptive price increase that tempts traders to buy (or “go long”), only for the market to reverse and head lower. Picture this: Bitcoin climbs a bit more, everyone jumps in thinking the rally is real, and then—bam—it crashes, leaving late buyers holding losses. Given Bitcoin’s history of sharp reversals, this scenario feels plausible, especially with the current lack of direction.

Scenario 2: War Recovery

On the flip side, this pump could signal Bitcoin bouncing back from war-related economic shocks. Global instability often rattles markets, and cryptocurrencies can either suffer or thrive depending on the narrative. If this is a recovery, the price might stabilize or climb further—but the odds seem slimmer compared to a trap, at least for now.

Why the Bull Trap Feels More Likely

The market’s indecision is a breeding ground for traps. Fakeouts—where prices briefly spike or dip to shake out traders—are common when direction isn’t clear. Bitcoin’s recent milestone above $100K could be bait, enticing bullish traders before pulling the rug. Without a big catalyst (like significant news), the trap scenario holds more weight.

How to Trade This

Given the risks, here’s the smart play:

- **Small Position Sizes**: Don’t go all in. Use smaller trades to limit your exposure if the market turns against you. This keeps losses manageable while still letting you participate.

- **Spot Buying**: Stick to buying Bitcoin directly (on the spot market) rather than using leverage-heavy options like futures or derivatives. Spot purchases reduce the risk of getting wiped out by sudden swings.

- **Stay Cautious**: Watch for fake movements and don’t chase pumps blindly. Patience could save you from getting caught in a trap.

The Bottom Line:

Bitcoin’s climb above $100K is exciting, but it’s not time to celebrate yet. The market could be setting a **bull trap** to snag overeager traders, though a **war recovery** isn’t off the table. With fakeouts likely and direction unclear, tread lightly. Use small positions, buy in spot, and wait for a clear signal—like a major news event—to confirm the trend. Don’t fall for the traps!

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