#USCorePCEMay
📊 May 2025 Core PCE Inflation Summary:
Core PCE (Fed's key inflation gauge) rose 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY — both slightly higher than expected.
Headline PCE rose 0.1% MoM and 2.3% YoY — still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Consumer spending fell by 0.1%, while personal income dropped 0.4%, mostly due to reduced Social Security adjustments.
🧠 Market Implication:
This hotter-than-expected inflation data dims hopes of a July rate cut.
Markets now expect the first Fed rate cut in September, possibly followed by another before year-end.
📌 Bottom Line:
Inflation is sticky, consumer spending is cooling, and the Fed is staying cautious. All eyes now shift to upcoming data for signs of inflation easing or pressure building.
