As of 2025, the price of Bitcoin is showing a horizontal trend at the level of $107,405.73. Despite the continuation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional purchases, the lack of significant price increase is attracting the attention of investors. With billions of dollars of funds entering Bitcoin, experts relate the reasons for the stagnant price to various factors.

According to on-chain data, demand for Bitcoin through ETFs continues strongly. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a net inflow of approximately 100,000 BTC into ETFs. However, despite this positive fund flow, prices have not increased as much as expected. Experts indicate that not all ETF purchases are made directly by institutional investors; family offices and high-net-worth individuals are also involved in these purchases. Nevertheless, it is stated that these investments positively affect the supply-demand balance in the long term.

On the institutional side, especially the accumulation activities of the Strategy company stand out. Throughout 2025, Strategy's portfolio increased from 528,000 BTC to 592,000 BTC. Additionally, the total amount of Bitcoin in all institutional treasuries exceeded 823,000 BTC. However, since Bitcoin's market value is at the trillion-dollar level, a repeat of the rapid price increases seen in previous periods looks difficult at this stage. This is because Bitcoin was trading around $40,000 when ETFs came to market, and today it trades above $110,000.

Excess Supply and the Impact of Profit Sales

One of the reasons for Bitcoin's price remaining horizontal is the profit sales made by long-term investors. In the last three months, investors holding Bitcoin for 1 to 5 years have sold approximately 240,000 BTC into the market. These sales balanced the positive impact of institutional and ETF purchases on the price. Additionally, miners continue to increase supply by producing and releasing an average of 450 BTC daily. This supply-demand balance is seen as one of the key factors preventing price rises.

In the derivatives markets, Bitcoin open positions have significantly increased. In recent years, open positions in derivative products have risen from $5 billion to $25 billion. This situation indicates that investors are turning to derivative products instead of spot Bitcoin. The fact that derivative transactions do not increase spot demand is another factor limiting upward price movement.

Future Expectations

Recently, a noticeable decrease in the selling pace of long-term investors has been observed. The daily net sales amount falling below 1,000 BTC is considered a positive sign for price increase. If institutional purchases continue and individual investor interest revives, it is anticipated that the price of Bitcoin may rise more quickly.

Bitcoin Magazine author Matt Crosby comments, 'A new wave of increase in Bitcoin is possible when long-term investor sales decrease and institutional purchases continue.'

There are examples from the past where the price of Bitcoin doubled in a short time when retail investor interest increased. Therefore, it is thought that market sentiment plays a significant role in price movements.

Conclusion

Although regular fund inflow into Bitcoin continues with ETFs and institutional purchases, profit sales by long-term investors and high open positions in the derivatives markets continue to put pressure on prices. The current market value and supply-demand balance limit excessive price increases in the short term. However, if sales decrease and demand increases, significant price increases may be possible in the medium term. For investors, closely monitoring this balance and market dynamics will help in making more informed investment decisions.

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