Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $107,300 with a limited increase of about 0.60%, while U.S. stock markets reached record levels.

The S&P 500 index rose to 6,173.07 points, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed to 20,273.46. In this rise, progress made in trade talks between the U.S. and China and an increase in global risk appetite played a significant role.

The cryptocurrency market also performed in parallel with this positive sentiment. Bitcoin managed to stay above $107,000 for most of the week and gained approximately 3.8% in value over the last seven days.

This increase coincided with positive statements from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, stating that they are in the final stages of trade agreements with China and 10 other countries. On the other hand, President Trump's abrupt statements suggesting he might end trade talks with Canada caused a brief cooling in the market, but both stocks and Bitcoin managed to maintain their gains. These developments indicate that Bitcoin is now being evaluated as a macroeconomic risk factor rather than merely a speculative asset.

Featured Data:

Bitcoin's weekly increase: 3.8%

Nasdaq and S&P 500 at new records

Bitcoin price is moving in the range of $100,000–$110,000

Inflation and Fed Policy Restricting the Bulls’ Pace

Despite the general market rise, Bitcoin's upward movement is being limited by macroeconomic factors. The U.S. core PCE inflation—the inflation indicator prioritized by the Fed—rose to 2.7% year-on-year in May, exceeding the expected 2.6%. The monthly core inflation recorded an increase of 0.2%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he continues to maintain a data-driven and cautious monetary policy approach, emphasizing that interest rate cuts are not certain. President Trump's harsh statements regarding tariffs increased inflation concerns, supporting the Fed's cautious stance. This cautious policy has become a factor limiting speculative risk appetite in cryptocurrency markets.

Although Bitcoin continues to find support around $105,000, catalysts such as a significant decrease in inflation or a policy change from the Fed are needed for upward movement.

Bitcoin Volume Decline and Technical Outlook

Recent price movements of Bitcoin indicate a consolidation process rather than a strong upward momentum. According to Glassnode data, spot trading volumes have decreased; daily transfer volume fell from $76 billion to $52 billion in May. A slowdown is also observed in the futures market; three-month averages and funding rates are on the decline.

From a technical perspective, breaking the resistance at the $108,250 level is critical for a new upward movement in Bitcoin. A symmetric triangle or bullish flag formation is observed on the 4-hour charts. In the short term, the support at $105,970, which is the 50-EMA, is being monitored, while the horizontal movement of the MACD indicator requires a cautious approach.

Important Technical Levels:

Resistances: $108,250, $109,257, $110,448

Supports: $105,970, $104,991 (Fib 0.382), $103,984 (Fib 0.5)

Trading Recommendations:

Buying area: breakout above $108,300

Targets: $109,257 and $110,448

Stop-loss: below $105,970

Alternative entry point: retracement from $104,991 level

At this stage, investors are advised to closely monitor trading volume and technical indicators.


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