The Federal Reserve expects an 18.6% probability of a rate cut in July and a 74.8% probability in September.

According to reports, CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 18.6%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 81.4%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the rate unchanged until September is 8.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 74.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 16.6%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates are July 30 and September 17.