The question is as follows: If I use Wyckoff's volume-price analysis theory to conduct contract operations in the virtual currency market, when looking at trading volume, should I refer to contract trading volume or spot trading volume?

I asked both deepseek and Grok, and they gave different answers, which left me very confused!

Grok's response:
In the Wyckoff volume-price analysis theory, trading volume is a key indicator for determining market supply and demand relationships, trend strength, and potential reversals or continuations. For contract operations in the cryptocurrency market (such as futures, leveraged trading, etc.), it is recommended to primarily refer to the trading volume of the contract market for the following reasons:

  • Direct correlation of the contract market: Contract trading (especially perpetual contracts or futures contracts) typically has high leverage and high volatility, and the behavior of market participants (such as long-short games, forced liquidations, etc.) will directly affect price trends. Contract trading volume better reflects these market dynamics, especially the behavior of major funds (such as accumulation, distribution, testing the market, etc., which are key stages in Wyckoff theory).

  • Limitations of spot trading volume: Spot trading volume reflects the actual buying and selling of assets, although it can provide information on market participation and liquidity, in the contract market, price fluctuations are more driven by leveraged trading and speculative behavior. Spot trading volume may not fully capture these dynamics, especially in a high-leverage environment.

  • Market differentiation: The spot and contract markets in the cryptocurrency market sometimes exhibit different behavior patterns. For example, the contract market may experience sharp price fluctuations due to high leverage, while the spot market may be relatively stable. Therefore, analyzing the trading volume in the contract market can more directly reflect your trading environment.

deepseek's response:

Prioritize referencing spot trading volume

  • Reason: Spot trading volume better reflects the true supply and demand relationship in the market, while contract trading volume may be influenced by leverage and the long-short game (such as liquidation and funding rate arbitrage). The core of Wyckoff theory is to track the behavior of 'smart money' in accumulation/distribution, and the capital flow in the spot market is more relevant.

  • Exceptions:

    • If the contract trading volume of a certain cryptocurrency is much larger than the spot volume (such as for some smaller coins), both should be observed together.

    • A sudden increase in contract market volume (such as accompanied by sharp price fluctuations) may indicate extreme short-term sentiment (such as short squeezes or long liquidations).


Now, I would like to ask everyone, who should we listen to?