The 90-day truce between U.S. and China ends on July 9

The return of the $300B tariffs could have significant effects

1/

✧ On July 9, the 90-day truce between the US and China expires

✧ This agreement temporarily froze the escalation of the trade war initiated by Trump

✧ It gave markets a false sense of stability and reduced volatility

✧ But within days, the world may return to full-scale economic conflict

2/

✧ Trump has repeatedly stated he’s ready to impose tariffs at any moment

✧ He accuses China of currency manipulation and tech theft

✧ His main goal is to weaken China’s economy and boost US manufacturing

✧ And to do that, he’s about to switch back to full aggression

3/

✧ Behind the scenes, a new tariff package worth up to $300B is being prepared

✧ It could hit all consumer goods - from electronics to clothing

✧ Earlier rounds mostly targeted autos and semiconductors

✧ Now, everything in your home may be affected

4/

✧ China is already preparing countermeasures and mobilizing state companies

✧ They may restrict rare earth exports to the US

✧ This would hit American defense and tech sectors hard

✧ In 2019, China already used this leverage effectively

5/

✧ Equity markets feel the pressure but still ignore the full scale of risk

✧ The S&P500 and Nasdaq remain near ATHs - illusion persists

✧ Volatility is low, and liquidity is boosted by rate cut expectations

✧ But tariffs can flip the market in a single day

6/

✧ Higher tariffs will inevitably increase inflationary pressure in the US

✧ That will complicate the Fed’s plans to lower interest rates

✧ Back in 2018–2019, the Fed was trapped between inflation and slowdown

✧ Now the same story may repeat under even worse global conditions

7/

✧ China could also devalue the yuan to absorb tariff damage

✧ That would trigger a new wave of currency wars and capital outflows

✧ Investors would rush to safe havens - gold and Bitcoin

✧ Risk assets would come under heavy pressure

8/

✧ July is not just another month - it’s a turning point in global policy

✧ Any message from Trump could reshape market structure in minutes

✧ He plays strategic chaos: scare the market, then save it with a tweet

✧ But this time, the stakes are much higher

9/

✧ For Trump, trade war escalation is both economic and political leverage

✧ He uses chaos to pressure the Fed and his opponents

✧ A market crash gives him an excuse to demand emergency rate cuts

✧ All of this happens ahead of elections, where he wants to look like a savior

10/

✧ Don’t be surprised if S&P futures drop -3% on July 10

✧ Or if Powell suddenly shifts to a hawkish tone despite weak data

✧ This shift in rhetoric will trigger the next wave of turbulence

✧ Be prepared - the truce ends, but the war is just beginning

11/

✧ Now is the perfect moment to reassess risk and exposure

✧ Everything that seemed stable over the last 3 months could collapse fast

✧ Most vulnerable: tech giants, overbought equities, and Chinese ADRs

✧ If you want safety - prioritize liquidity, USD, gold, and selective crypto

12/

✧ 90 days is all the calm this market was given

✧ Starting July 9, we enter a new phase of trade uncertainty

✧ Markets still rely too much on central bank bailouts

✧ But this time, no one is coming to rescue - it will be a survival game.

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