Time is running out for the main force to wash the盘
A few days ago, the US dollar index suddenly plummeted, the fundamental reason being that the Federal Reserve hinted at "a possible interest rate cut in September." The market immediately reacted, starting to bet on "easing" in advance. Now the market believes that the probability of an interest rate cut in September exceeds 60%, and even the originally unlikely July has a 20% chance.
An interest rate cut means lower bank interest, and many funds will run away from low-risk places to seek higher-yielding assets, such as the stock market and Bitcoin. Therefore, once the interest rate cut begins, there will be more money in the market, which is good news for high-risk assets.
However, many people are still bearish, mainly due to poor technical trends, unstable international situations, the Federal Reserve still tightening, and both the US stock market and Bitcoin being stuck at high levels.
These reasons sound reasonable but may not all be correct. Bitcoin is a market controlled by large funds, and technical patterns can easily be "played out"; the international situation has actually become something everyone is used to, with reactions becoming increasingly muted; more importantly, many countries around the world have already started cutting interest rates, and expectations have long been driving funds into the market.
For example, the market value of stablecoins increased by $2 billion in 5 days, which is a sign that funds are quietly coming in. The market appears quiet, but in fact, it is accumulating strength.
The key question is: if the main force really wants to crash the market, they need to hurry. Because by the time the interest rate cut really happens in September, retail investors will flood in to bottom-fish, and the cost of washing the盘 will be high. So the best timing may be July or August.
If there is a sudden interest rate cut in July, it will catch the market off guard, and the market may first break through and then reverse, tricking retail investors in before harvesting them.
In simple terms, the current market is not genuinely bearish; rather, it may be the silence before a rise. If the interest rate cut really comes in July, it will be a signal for early activation, and the market may come unexpectedly.
Time is running out for the main force to wash the盘, and similarly, there is not much time left for retail investors to bottom-fish.
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