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Notably, all 19 instances occurred within a broader bull market context. In 2024 and 2025, there were only two failed signals, in May 2024 and March 2025, where the pattern did not lead to new price highs.
Despite these exceptions, the prevailing bull market structure suggests a statistically favorable environment for continuation, with Bitcoin currently positioned to make new highs before potentially retesting the $100,000 level.
For broader context, the same pattern was also observed during the 2022 bear market, where four occurrences were identified. None of these led to new highs, with three instances clustered within February 2022.
This contrast underscores the importance of trend context, as the pattern’s effectiveness has historically been limited in downtrends, further reinforcing the higher probability of success during the present bull market.
