Last week, the USD experienced significant volatility as information about US intervention in the conflict between Israel and Iran was released. However, after a ceasefire agreement was signed, market sentiment improved, causing the USD to fall below 97, marking its lowest level since March 2022. Looking ahead, traders will pay particular attention to US PMI data and the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be released early next Thursday due to the holiday. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week:
Chicago PMI and Predictions from the Federal Reserve of the United States
At 21:45 on Monday, the Chicago PMI for June will be released. This is an important indicator of economic activity in the Midwest, influencing monetary policy and decisions by the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed).
At the same time, at 22:00, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver a speech on the economic outlook of the United States, helping investors better understand the Fed's thinking about future interest rate adjustments.
Speeches from Fed leaders on Tuesday and Thursday
At 01:00 on Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will share insights on factors affecting economic prospects. This is an opportunity to monitor policymakers' reactions to recent economic data.
Next, at 21:30 the same day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a group meeting, which may provide deeper insights into the Fed's expectations regarding economic growth and inflation.
PMI data and employment situation in the United States
At 22:00 on Tuesday, the ISM report on the June manufacturing PMI, JOLTs data on May job openings, and May construction spending will be released. These figures will be crucial for providing a comprehensive view of the health of the US economy.
On Thursday, at 20:30, data on the number of unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 will be released, along with the unemployment rate for June and the number of non-farm jobs, helping to assess the overall employment situation.
Labor situation and the possibility of interest rate cuts
The June non-farm payroll report is expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, while the number of jobs may decrease from 139,000 to 129,000. The JOLTs data on job openings will also be released next Tuesday.
If the PMI figures also reflect a positive situation, investors may reconsider interest rate cut predictions, especially if the employment report continues to show a strong labor market.
Market predictions in the current economic context
The market is gradually adapting to the possibility that the Fed may continue to maintain the current interest rate policy, stabilizing the USD. This adjustment may affect investor sentiment, making them cautious in cryptocurrency investment decisions.
Analysts predict that stability in economic data may lead to a recovery of the USD, but it is also important to monitor upcoming monetary policy developments to formulate reasonable investment strategies.
Factors affecting the USD
The USD could recover if employment and PMI data reflect stability. If the market continues to see attractiveness in safe assets and improvement in consumer sentiment, the greenback may face more positive growth.
Overall, the coming week promises to be an important week for the USD and developments in the financial markets. Investors need to closely monitor economic indicators and speeches from Fed officials to make accurate decisions.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/tong-quan-kinh-te-tuan-toi-du-lieu-va-trump/
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