Big changes are coming in August-September

From four aspects, it's clear that big changes are coming in August-September. We need to be prepared and not remain empty-handed, primarily holding BTC and the four major cryptocurrencies, while avoiding excessive purchases of altcoins.

(1) Ceasefire Agreement between Israel and Palestine

Recently, there have not been many significant conflicts or wars in the world. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become normalized and is unlikely to stir up new waves for now.

(2) Signs of cooling inflation are gradually emerging. After soaring at the beginning of the conflict, oil prices have significantly retreated. Following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, crude oil futures were quickly sold off, with a drop of over 10% this week. The U.S. Case-Shiller home price index has decreased for two consecutive months.

(3) Expectations of interest rate cuts

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that some members support a rate cut earlier than the market expects. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also hinted that if tariffs do not exacerbate inflation, a rate cut is likely. Although Fed Chairman Powell stated this week that if inflation is under control, a rate cut will be initiated. The market expects the Fed may cut rates 2-3 more times before the end of the year, but it is highly likely that the July meeting will remain unchanged.

(4) BTC reserves on exchanges have dropped to a new low, with over 3,000 BTC flowing out of exchanges this week. Retail investors have mostly sold off, and the accumulation process by major players is nearing its end.