Bitcoin Struggles at $112,000 Threshold: Volume Increase Required for New Peaks
As Bitcoin's rally towards $112,000 slows down, analysts state that a significant increase in trading volumes and breaking the $110,000 resistance is necessary for sustained rises. The weakening MVRV momentum suggests that the bull cycle for the leading cryptocurrency may have entered its final stage.
The recovery of spot market and on-chain transfer volumes may also be crucial for BTC's price breakout. Experts emphasize that turning the $108,000–$110,000 band into a support area is critical for the bulls to take control.
Bitcoin Rally Slowing Down: What Do MVRV Signals Indicate?
Bitcoin gained 50% in value to reach $112,000, starting from below $74,000 in April. However, this momentum has stalled in recent days. CryptoQuant data shows that the market value to realized value ratio, MVRV, has lost momentum.
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent states that the current MVRV decline does not mean a sudden trend reversal, but rather that we may have entered the final stages of the bull market. Currently, the MVRV at 2.22 is well below the overvaluation threshold of 3.7, indicating that there is still room for an upward move.
A resurgence of MVRV may indicate that investors continue to hold their BTC and that selling pressure has decreased. When combined with ongoing inflows into spot ETFs, this could pave the way for Bitcoin to exceed its current peak and move towards $165,000.
On-Chain Volumes Declining: Is Bull Power Weak?
Bitcoin's spot trading volume and on-chain transfers have shown a clear decline in recent weeks. The seven-day average on-chain transfer volume has decreased by about 32% from the peak of $76 billion reached at the end of May, falling to $52 billion.
In parallel, spot trading volume is around $7.7 billion and remains quite weak compared to previous bull markets. Glassnode stated in its report that the lack of trading volume accompanying the recent rally compared to the first two major upswings of 2024 indicates a weakening of investor interest.
Analysis provider Alva emphasized that volume-less rises may not be sustainable, stating, 'A high-volume breakout above $107,500 would technically be the first serious bullish signal.'
Key Resistance at $110,000
Bitcoin is currently moving sideways between $100,000 and $110,000. To exit this consolidation phase, the $108,000–$110,000 band needs to become a support.
Popular analyst AlphaBTC stated that a 'significant effort' is needed to break this range. According to him, BTC may first pull back to test the liquidity in the $104,000–$105,000 region. However, a strong breakout afterward could pave the way for it to rise above $109,000, opening up all-time highs.
Rekt Capital emphasized that BTC must break the major weekly resistance above $108,000, while Michaël van de Poppe stated that $109,000 is the 'zone that needs to be broken' for the continuation of the rise.
According to Cointelegraph's report, the $108,000–$110,000 band has become a target for investors due to high liquidity density. Strong closes above this area could allow Bitcoin to re-enter the price discovery process.
Conclusion: The Direction May Be Up But Conditions Are Unclear
BTC's stagnation at $112,000 indicates that upward momentum is weakening.
Breaking $110,000 and increasing volumes could signal new peaks.
The MVRV ratio indicates that the bull cycle has matured, but there is still potential.
Unless spot and on-chain volumes recover, the sustainability of the rise may remain limited.
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