Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, speculation about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has once again flooded the headlines. But let’s set the record straight — the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and the recent noise is more about political posturing than imminent action.


🧠 Understand the Process: It's Not That Simple


First of all, Iran’s parliament approving a motion to close the Strait does not make it law. It’s merely an indication of sentiment. For any such decision to take effect, the following must happen:



  2. It must be reviewed and approved by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.


  4. Then, it must be signed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


This is a lengthy bureaucratic and political process — not something that can be executed overnight.


🎯 Why Iran Is Unlikely to Follow Through


Even if the rhetoric sounds aggressive, Iran closing the Strait would hurt its own strategic interests. Here’s why:



  • It would not only provoke the United States, but also alienate key economic partners.


  • Countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea are major buyers of oil and gas from the Gulf. Iran cannot afford to lose their support.


  • While a closure could cause short-term inflation in the U.S., Iran’s long-term survival depends on maintaining trade relationships, not destroying them.


📊 2024 Energy Flow Data: The Real Picture


Let’s look at the numbers for 2024:



  • 84% of crude oil and condensate exports via the Strait of Hormuz are destined for Asian markets.


  • 83% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also flows to Asia.


  • China, India, Japan, and South Korea collectively account for 69% of all crude oil and condensate exports through the Strait.


  • The U.S. imports only around 500,000 barrels per day through the Strait — just 7% of its total oil imports and 2% of total petroleum liquid consumption.


This makes it clear: the biggest stakeholders in the Strait of Hormuz are not the U.S., but Asia — and Iran knows this.

Conclusion:
The Strait of Hormuz remains open. The alarm bells are premature. Don’t be misled by dramatic headlines or speculative chatter. Until Khamenei signs off and tankers stop sailing, this remains just noise — not a cris