Following Judge Analisa Torresā June 26 denial of Ripple and the SECās joint motion for an indicative ruling, crypto attorney Fred Rispoli has delivered a blistering breakdown of the legal and political dynamics behind the decisionāand issued a clear prediction on when the XRP lawsuit may finally conclude.
Rispoli, founder of Hodl Law and one of the most outspoken legal voices in the XRP community, wasted no time analyzing the ruling, which rejected both partiesā efforts to modify the courtās final judgment and resolve the long-running case at the appellate level.
šøXRP Lawsuit Shaken By Denial
āI thought Judge Torres would grant the first motion,ā Rispoli wrote in a lengthy post on X, ārecognizing that the anti-crypto war of the Gensler Era was political animus and that the agency was moving in a different direction under new leadership.ā But Torres, he said, āchose not to,ā and āthere was zero obstacle to her granting the motion and moving on.ā
In his view, the refusal was less about legal deficiency and more about institutional frustration or political motivation. āThere are only two reasons for this,ā Rispoli argued. āOne, she was pissed that the parties wasted 4.5 years of her time with bitter litigationā¦ Two, she is hostile to the Trump administration and will do what she can to throw up obstacles.ā
Rispoliās analysis extended sharply to the SECās failure to support the motion with official testimony that could have helped the court reconsider its prior findings of reckless conduct by Ripple. Citing pages 3 and 4 of Torresā order, Rispoli pointed out that āthe ruling parrot[s] back the SECās own words of how egregious, dangerous, and reckless the SEC believed Ripple to be and why a $1 BILLION fine was necessary.ā
He emphasized that nothing in the SECās submission countered those prior statements with institutional acknowledgment of past errors. āI said that the second motion had to have some actual testimony by SEC Commissioners,ā he wrote, imagining declarations such as: āI, Commissioner Peirce, voted against this ridiculous lawsuit because it was a waste of our enforcement resources,ā or āI, Commissioner Atkinsā¦ determined the SEC enforcement division under the prior administration acted arbitrarily, capriciously and often with bad faith.ā
None of that materialized. āThis obviously did not happen,ā Rispoli said, and offered two possible explanations. ā(1) Ripple and the SEC did not discuss this necessityā¦ (2) Ripple did ask and the SEC said, āWe are not making ourselves look like idiot assholes. This crappy motion on SEC letterhead is the best I can offer.āā
He concluded that the second explanation is most likely, and said the SECās institutional behavior remains unchanged. āThe SEC is going to do what it has done for decades: protect its own regardless of the administration in charge or detriment to the public.ā
That belief fuels Rispoliās broader frustration with US regulatory governance. āIf you ever want to know the types of pieces of shit that sit atop the SEC, type into your browser ādavid aguirre sec whistleblowerā and read upā¦ I sue .gov agencies all the time for despicable behaviorā¦ This is the reason I am so invested in cryptoāto opt out of our crumbling system.ā
When Will The XRP Lawsuit End?
Looking ahead, Rispoli remains convinced that a settlement is coming soon. Responding to a reader who asked when the saga might finally end, Rispoli gave two scenarios for the August status update due to the Second Circuit: either the parties ask to resume the appeal, or they declare it settled.
āIn that scenario, case doesnāt end until late 2026/early 2027,ā he said of a revived appeal. But thatās not the outcome he expects. āI think we see (2) happen and get that announcement end of July/early August of this year.ā
As for the implications of the courtās existing injunction against Rippleās institutional XRP sales, Rispoli minimized its real-world effect. āIt doesnāt affect $XRP on the secondary markets nor will it impact XRP ETF approvals,ā he explained. While Torres technically retains authority to enforce it, Rispoli added, āThe injunction only substantively matters if the SEC wants it to matter.ā
He also noted that Ripple appears to be preparing to move forward under mutually tolerable terms. āIf you look at the @s_alderoty post on this ruling from today,ā Rispoli observed, āhe used the term āhistoric institutional salesā to describe the Torres-determined-bad-behavior. This signals to me that the parties are going to settle and move on with the understanding that XRP sales to institutions will be done in a way the SEC can live with.ā
Though Judge Torresā refusal to accommodate the proposed resolution was a procedural blow, Rispoli believes it will prove to be the final flashpoint in a case that is now headed toward closure. āThe parties will drop their appeals, settle at $50M and move on with the injunction in place,ā he wrote.
If his forecast is right, the XRP community could be less than six weeks away from the end of one of the most consequential enforcement actions in crypto history.