$BTC

📅 1. Evolution last 5 days

• BTC is trading today at ≈ $107,527, intraday range $106,515–107,884.

• Over the past week, it fluctuated between $98,200 and $109,000. It rebounded strongly from support at $98K after geopolitical calm, now slightly below the May high ($112K).

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🛠️ 2. Technical analysis

• Pattern: a falling wedge is developing: increasingly lower but converging highs and lows, a typical precursor to a bullish breakout.

• Indicators:

• RSI ~56 → neutral with room to rise.

• Stochastic ~85 (near overbought), MACD has already crossed upwards → momentum is bought.

• Moving averages 5/20/50/100 are below the price → bullish support signal.

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🌍 3. Fundamental analysis

• Geopolitics: easing tensions in the Middle East boosts risk appetite.

• ETFs and institutional: inflows continue with relief in regulation and stablecoins via the Senate.

• US Politics: the creation of a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” continues to lend legitimacy.

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🗞️ 4. News

• Weak dollar and inflation data (PCE, Powell's speech) may reinforce BTC.

• ETF flows, stablecoin regulation, and completion of the wedge may act as triggers.

• Options expirations (~$15 K M) generate possible volatility.

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🎯 5. Strategies

Scenario Entry SL Target

A) Bullish breakout if it breaks and closes >$108,200 $106,500 $112,000 → $115,000

B) Rejection at resistance downward candle near $108,000 $108,500 $105,000 → $102,000

C) Reversal from support buy near $105–106K $104,000 $108K

Risk management: ≤1% of capital per trade and R:R ratio ≥ 1:2.

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🔮 6. Prediction

• Base: consolidation in a falling wedge between $105–108K.

• Bullish: breakout → rally towards $112K+, driven by institutional flows and macro catalysts.

• Bearish: rejection → correction towards $102–105K if macro conditions worsen.

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#Bitcoin #BTCanalysis #CryptoTrading