The S&P 500's recent high, as reflected in the SPY's current price of $613.859, aligns with the factors you mentioned: political stability, easing trade tensions, a dovish Federal Reserve, and solid economic indicators. The index has climbed steadily, up 4.1% over the past month and 13.6% over the past year, per the finance card above, signaling broad market confidence.

However, risks loom. Elevated valuations—evidenced by high P/E ratios across major indices—suggest limited room for error. Potential tariff implementations could disrupt global supply chains, impacting corporate margins and investor sentiment. Upcoming inflation data, particularly PCE figures, will be critical, as they guide Fed policy. A higher-than-expected PCE could shift expectations away from dovish measures, pressuring equities. Q2 earnings will also be pivotal; any signs of weakening corporate performance could trigger pullbacks, especially in overbought sectors like tech.

Key actions:
• Tariff Timelines: Monitor trade policy announcements, particularly U.S.-China developments, as these could introduce volatility.
• Inflation/PCE Data: Watch the next PCE report (likely late July 2025) for clues on Fed rate decisions.
• Q2 Earnings: Focus on guidance from major firms, starting mid-July, for insights into consumer demand and cost pressures.
Vigilance on these fronts will be crucial to navigate potential reversals.

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