🧩 What It Actually Means
A massive 140,000 BTC options (calls and puts) worth around $15 billion are set to mature on Friday, June 27 .
This is part of a larger $40 billion open interest in BTC derivatives on platforms like Deribit .
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⚙️ Key Metrics and Their Implications
Metric Value What It Indicates
Put/Call Ratio ~0.74 (or 0.73) Slightly more bullish (more calls than puts)
Max Pain Price ~$102,000 Market makers may drive BTC toward this to reduce their payouts
Implied Volatility ~38% At its lowest since Oct 2023—signals subdued expectations
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🔪 Potential Scenarios
1. Volatility Spike
Despite low implied volatility, the massive expiry alone can trigger sharp moves—expect spikes during Friday afternoon in the US session .
2. Max Pain Effect
With max pain at $102K and BTC currently around $107K, market makers may bias the price down toward $102K, especially if sellers dominate.
3. Bullish Post-Expiry Setup
If BTC holds above key support levels like $105K–$106K, traders could shift sentiment bullish as open interest rolls over .
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🕒 Timing to Watch
Thursday evening – Friday afternoon UTC/New York: Most active expiry period.
Price zone near $102K–$105K: Key battle zone, based on max pain and technical support .
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✅ What You Can Do
Lean into technicals:
If BTC stays above $105K, consider bullish positions.
If it drops toward $102K, look to fade or short the bounce.
Manage risk during expiry:
Keep stops flexible.
Lower leverage as the expiry approaches.
Track live data:
Monitor put/call flips, OI shifts, and volatility.
Watch whether traders roll positions to next expiry or close out.