#USCorePCEMay Here’s the latest on U.S. Core PCE for May ("#USCorePCEMay"):

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📊 May Core PCE (ex-food & energy)

Month-over-month (MoM): up 0.1%, matching April’s rise .

Year-over-year (YoY): 2.6%, modestly higher than April’s 2.5% .

📈 Headline PCE for context

Headline MoM: 0.1% rise.

Headline YoY: 2.3% – modestly above April’s 2.1% .

🔍 What it means

The Fed's favored inflation gauge remains close to target.

Core PCE at 2.6% suggests stable underlying inflation—likely to support expectations for the first Fed rate cut in September, though July remains on the table if inflation continues to hold steady .

However, Fed Chair Powell has expressed caution: tariff impacts may still show up in upcoming data, and he prefers to wait before easing .

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🧭 Implications for markets

Markets generally saw the data as dovish, reinforcing the probability of rate cuts later in 2025 (Sept > July).

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, and equities showed modest gains in reaction .

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📅 Timing and next steps

BEA officially released this data on May 30, 2025, for May—and it was widely syndicated on June 27 as the key inflation update .

Next ons are June CPI/PPI mid‑July, which will clarify any tariff-driven pressures.

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TL;DR: May’s Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY—soft, steady inflation that keeps the Fed on track for a potential rate cut later this year, though decision‑makers remain cautious given tariff risks.

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