#USCorePCEMay

📈 U.S. Core PCE (May 2025)

Forecast & Context

In May, the Core PCE (ex-food/energy) was projected to increase 0.1% month-over-month, matching April’s gain, and to 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.5% in April

Headline PCE inflation (with food and energy) was expected to tick up to +2.3% YoY

The BEA released the data on May 30, 2025

Actual Outcome

Core PCE rose 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY, in line with expectations

Market & Fed Implications

The print reinforces the Fed’s data-driven approach—keeping rates steady, with only a ~18% probability of a July cut and ~70% odds for September

Inflation numbers remain above the Fed’s 2% target, signalling a cautious stance on monetary policy, and cooling thoughts of early easing

🪙 Crypto Market Reaction

The release had a modest supportive effect on risk assets:

Bitcoin and Ethereum saw slight upward movement as the inflation data fell in line with expectations, easing concerns about aggressive tightening

Analysts note that when Core PCE aligns with forecasts, USD strength eases and crypto typically gains steam
#USCorePCEMay #BTC110KToday?